2026年6月风险评估：波斯湾的水合作用中断

COUNTRYANDSECTOR RISKSHydrationbreak in the PersianGulf Paris,23 June 2026–As the Middle East moves towards afragilelull in hostilities,the economic shock caused by the conflict–supply chains perturbation, inflation…-is already spreading to the global economy.Against this backdrop,Coface hascarried out 8 country downgrades and 45 sector rating changes (41 downgrades,compared with just 4 upgrades). Key figures: •+2.3 per cent:expected global growth in 2026•-0.6 percentage points:cumulative revision tothe global growthforecast for2026 and 2027•USD85perbarrel:expected average priceofBrentin 2026 A lull ingeopolitical tensionsdoes not meana return to normality After more thanfifteen weeks of conflict,the signing of the memorandum ofunderstanding between theUSand Iran heralds aperiodof calmforthe Middle East,ina regional environmentthwarted byfragility.Butthehiatuscannotconcealthe keyissue: the duration and intensity of the conflict, which far exceeded initial expectations,have profoundly disrupted acrucialregion of the global economy. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint for the supply of hydrocarbons and theirderivatives. Very few countries–particularly in South-East Asia and on the East Africancoast–have been able tosidestepthese disruptions.Anyreturn to normality–if one isactually possible–will take time. The global economy is holding up but slowing down The global economy has so far absorbed the shock,notably thanks to priorstock-building and adjustments to demand. But this phase is reaching its limits.Production stoppages in certain sectors,the return of inflationary pressures, thetightening of financial conditionsare thefirstindicators of these difficultieswhilstgovernments have very little room for manoeuvre when it comes to supportingeconomic activity and incomes. Against this backdrop, Coface is revising its growth forecasts downwards to2.3%for2026 and2.5%for2027, a reduction of 0.6 percentage points over two years. Supply chains under strain The virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz–145vesselstransited the passagewayinMay compared with over 3,300 a year earlier–hasdisrupted global transportandonceagainputsupply chains under strain. Companies are already reporting longer deliverytimes,rising costs and early signs of shortages,prompting them to build upprecautionary stocksat theexpenseof increased pressure on cash flow and margins.Against this backdrop, corporate insolvencies are expected to continue rising this year(+6% globally), with some countries seeing particularly sharp increases(notable the US,France and Japan). In detail, the impacts vary from region to region The shockis global,buttheintensity varies significantly by region. •Inthe Middle East, the Gulfstateshave beenthe most directly affected,withsharp contractionsas a result oftheir dependence on the Strait.•InEurope, rising energy prices and prolonged uncertainty are weighing ondomestic demand,with growth of just0.7 per centexpected for the eurozone.•IntheUS,inflation is rising again (from 2.4% in February to 4.2% in May),weighing on purchasing power andconsumption by low-income households.•InAsia,thepictureismixed, withsomesectors still performing strongly (SouthKorean semiconductor exportsup 153 per centsince the start of the year)whilst others arehaving to cope withsqueezed margins.•Last, inemerging economies, particularly in Latin America, the shockhasbeenmaterialised bya resurgence of inflation andmorerestrictive monetarypolicies,which is the case inBrazil, where the key interest rate stands at14.5%. Jean-Christophe Caffet,Chief Economistat Coface “The lull in hostilities in the Middle East is good news, but it cannot conceal the keyissue: the disruptions that are already under way will drag on business activity,income and employment. An unprecedented total of 41 sector downgrades across 19countries underscores the global impact of a conflict whose consequences for tradeflows and corporate profitability will continue to weigh heavily in the comingmonths”. COFACE PRESS OFFICE HAVAS Malcolm Biiga: +33 6 47 09 92 66Lucie Bolelli: +33 6 42 18 30 82coface@havas.com Adrien Billet: +33 6 59 46 59 15adrien.billet@coface.com COFACE: FOR TRADE A leading player in global trade credit risk management for80years, Coface helps businesses grow theiroperations and navigate an uncertain and volatile environment. Regardless of their size, location orsector, Coface supports 100,000 clients across nearly 200 markets through a comprehensive range ofsolutions: credit insurance, information services, debt collection, single-risk insurance, surety bonds andfactoring. Every day, Coface draws on its unique expertise and cutting-edge technologies to facilitatetrade, both in domestic and export markets. In2025, Coface had approximately5,511employees andrecorded a turnover of €1.84 billion.