2026年房地产夏季指南

Real Estate Summer Guide 2026 OurReal Estate Summer Guide 2026is theninth editionof our quarterly report aimedat discussing topical themes ahead of the upcoming earnings season, both at a sector andcompany-specific level. Valerie Jacob+44 20 7762 4885valerie.jacob@bernsteinsg.com Our strongest Outperform convictions are CTP, URW, Aedifica, Merlin and Landsec.Our key Underperform ratings are Colonial and Aroundtown. Marios Pastou+44 20 7676 6881marios.pastou@bernsteinsg.com WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR IN THE UPCOMING REPORTING SEASON Nikita Talwar+44 20 7676 8785nikita.talwar@bernsteinsg.com We have detailed our expectations for the upcoming 1H26 earnings season in this reportand have included a company-by-company summary table. We see operating performance,capital allocation, strategic updates and asset value growth trajectories in focus. This year, forthe first time since we started publishing this guide,we see risks for three companies todowngrade their guidance, two of which are on the back of weaker property developmentsales linked to the macroeconomic uncertainties. We seesix companies likely increasingguidance, mostly following acquisitions or previous conservative guidance. Specialist Sales Sara Bellenda+44 20 7762 1867sara.bellenda@bernsteinsg.com FEEDBACK, PUSHBACK, TALKBACK Over the past few months, we have met with a broad range of investors across multiplejurisdictions.Retailremains the favourite sub-sector at the moment. The sub-sector hasoutperformed and continues to screen well, albeit investors are increasingly questioning if itis time to take profits. Consolidation and acquisitions remain the two main topics discussedwith investors. The disconnect between the solid operating trends and the macro headwindsinthe UKremains a key talking point in meetings too. Occupier trends acrossEuropeanindustrial/logisticshave been a hot topic, especially as the major developers in this spacenow offer good entry points following recent weakness. Finally, we provide feedback onColonial’s CMD, TAG’s recent re-IPOof its Polish housebuilding armROBYG,and ourMENA initiations. MARKET UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST - HOW TO NAVIGATE? Macro and political uncertainties continue to influence the performance of the real estatesector. In this report, we discuss how the volatility around the ongoing peace proposals in Iran,upcoming elections in Berlin and France, and UK politics could influence the performance ofEuropean real estate. REAL ESTATE CONFERENCE 2026 Don’t miss our secondReal Estate ‘Back from the Beach’ conference,taking place10thSeptemberin London duringBernstein’s Flagship Strategic Decisions Conference.Agenda & registration link. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We think the European real estate sector represents good value. Our coverage offers a 31% discount to our FY26e EPRA NTA(27% on a last reported basis, wider compared to the long-term average discount of c.12%) and a 7.9% FY26e recurring EPSyield (c.150bp ahead of the long-term average), both on a weighted average basis (see Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). Based on the forward earnings multiple of the STOXX600, the European real estate sector is currently valued at an 4% discountcompared to the wider market. The once significant premium has reversed and compares to the c.24% long-term averagepremium vs the wider market (see Exhibit 3). On dividend, the real estate sector currently offers a discount to the broader market,wider compared to its long-term average (see Exhibit 4). We have refreshed our financial forecasts in certain instances, reflecting recent company updates and mild changes to ourassumptions. This includes Shurgard where we shave down our earnings assumptions by c.3% (on an EPS basis) following a weakstart to the year, now the bottom end of the guidance range for 2026e. This is reflected in our revised price target of €28.5 (from€31.0, also including the adjustment for the company now trading ex-div). We have also adjusted our price targets for companieswhich are now trading ex-div since our last update (these include URW, Carmila, TAG Immobilien, CTP, Vonovia, Shurgard, LEG,Colonial, British Land and Landsec). Further details can be found later in this report on a company-by-company basis.Our ratingsremain unchanged across the board. URW (15 May), Carmila (20 May), TAG Immobilien (21 May), CTP (22 May), Vonovia (22 May), Shurgard (25 May), LEG (28 May),Colonial (16 June), British Land (18 June) and Landsec (18 June). Don’t miss…Real Estate sector primer:European Listed Real Estate: Unlocking the door - Part 1Industrial/logistics sub-sector primer: Real Estate: Shedding light on industrial/logistics - Part 2German residential sub-sector primer: Real Estate: German Residential - Living by the Rules - Part 3Retail sub-sector primer: Real Estate: Unpacking retail - Part 4Real Estate Valuation Sheet(updated daily). See ourProperty/Real Estatepage to access our research and company models. VALUATION COMPS TABLE Table Of Contents Executive summar