2026年夏季旅行：有弹性，但不均衡

Summer travel 2026: Resilient, but uneven Key takeaways Summer travel plans appear resilient overall, despite higher oil and gasoline prices, though consumers are adjusting at themargin. According to the 2026 Bank of America Summer Travel Outlook, around 30% of respondents say higher gas prices won't •However, a "K-shaped" pattern appears to be emerging this travel season. Lower-income households are much more likely tohave no travel plans (nearly 40%), and Bank of America card data shows their travel-related spending is down year-over-year Domestically, California, Florida, Texas and New York are the top states to visit. Internationally, travelers favor North America (exUS) and Europe. Will higher fuel prices impact summer travel plans? The sharp rise in oil prices in March–by over $30 a barrel–quickly fed through to higher gasoline prices at the pump forAmericans. Additionally, higher oil prices put significant upward pressure on airfares, with the consumer price index (CPI) With higher costs for both driving and flying, are consumers cutting back on their summer vacation plans? The2026 Bank ofAmerica Summer Travel Outlook(conducted between March 26 and April 3) provides useful insights. For one, around 30% ofpeople who were asked“How have gas price changes affected your travel plans this summer?”responded by saying they are not Exhibit2:Most travelers are adjusting, not canceling, their plans inresponse to the gas price hike % responses to “How have gas price changes affected your travel plansthis summer?” Overall, the impact of higher energy prices on summer travel appears relatively limited so far. In our view, it could be that manypeople have already locked in their plans: 47% of survey respondents said they’d already planned a trip for this summer, up from38% in 2025 (Exhibit 3). And the overall share planning not to travel this summer is lower in this year’s Travel Survey than in What might explain this relatively positive outlook? In our view, one important factor is that overall consumer spending growthhas been strong so far this year. And a key reason for this is that many households received meaningfully larger tax refunds in2026 than in 2025, thanks to stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Bank of America internal data suggests thatmany households receiving these refunds have been spending them on airlines and lodging (for more, read our publication: But there is a “K” shape to holiday plans The consumer picture overall, however, masks divergences across income cohorts, which are also evident in the 2026 TravelSurvey.Exhibit 4shows that lower-income households are much more likely to say they don’t plan to travel this summer (nearly Exhibit 3: Morerespondentshad already planned a trip this yearthan last % responding “Are you planning to travel this summer?” in 2026Summer Travel Survey by income (%) % responding “Are you planning to travel this summer?” in 2025 and2026 Summer Travel Surveys (%) This same“K”shape in travel can also be seen in credit and debit card spending data. In particular, Bank of America internal dataon aggregated credit and debit card spending per household reveals a weaker picture for lower-income households than formiddle- and higher-income households (Exhibit 5). In fact, nominal year-over-year (YoY) spending growth was negative for lower- Exhibit5:Across most travel-related spending categoriesthereisa“K” shape, with lower-income spending weakestTotal credit and debit card spending per household on lodging, airlines, select other travel-related categories* and cruises by household incometerciles (% change January 1- April 30, 2026, YoY) One of the likely reasons for rising spending growth on airfares by middle- and higher-income households is simply that theprice of flights is rising. Looking at the number of card transactions on airlines suggests that throughout most of 2026, spending Exhibit7:…possibly also in lodgingNumber of credit and debit card transactions per household on lodging(28-day moving average, index January 2024 = 1) Exhibit6:Airline transactions have weakened lately…Number of credit and debit card transactions per household on airlines(28-day moving average, index January 2024 = 1) Domestically, sunshine remains a draw in 2026Traveling domestically remains the top choice for many households: in the 2026 Travel Survey, over 40% of respondents across all income cohorts said they plan to travel in the US but outside their home state (Exhibit 8). Exhibit8:The most common destinationamong respondentsiswithin theUS,butoutsidetheirhome state%of respondentsplanning to travel within the United States by incomecategory(%) Where might people go in the US? We use Bank of America internal data from households making brick-and-mortar cardtransactions more than 500 miles from their home address over 2025 as a proxy for spending while on a“trip.”Using thisapproach, we find California, Florida, Texas and New York were the top fou