赋能人工智能:映射燃气轮机供应堆栈——一种统一的方法

approach concernstowarddurabilityofearnings,addressing investorfears ofovercapacityas OEMsramp supply.Our incrementalanalysis integratesturbine,engine,andfuelcellcapacity intoaunifiedframework,highlightingwhere oversupplyrisk isreal (mid-scale/BTM)vs overstated(HDGT).We concludegas turbinemarkets aretransitioningtoward amorebalanced yetstill tightsupply-demand dynamic,with strongbacklogvisibilityand embeddedpricing,strengthening conviction in ourOutperform ratings on Siemens EnergyandGEVernova.Capacityexpansion is significant,thoughthe oversupply risk canbeisolated.We alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.comChad Dillard chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.comSunainaOcalan +1917344 8503OmKela estimate global turbine capacity rising>60% to~110GW by 2030,driven almost entirelyby brownfield expansions across the“big-3':This contrasts with the prior cycle's greenfieldoverbuild.This is an importantdistinction:capacitycan be scaled down at lower costifdemandnormalizes,reducingdownsiderisk. +44207550 2192om.kela@bernsteinsg.com generation, not HDGT.Engine and fuel cell capacity additions are substantial (drivingc.70%of the>170 GWin incrementalprimepowercapacity),butthese technologies areshowsthis capacity acts as a short-term shock absorberratherthan a structural competitor.In contrast,heavy-dutygas turbines (HDGT)dominate BYOG deployments (we model ac.75% share),and remain undersupplied through 2030,despitethebig-3'adding capacityof28Gwbetweenthemselves,insulatingthemost important segmentofOEMportfolios. +44 20 7762 5184dan.corcuera-robbins@bernsteinsg.com +1917344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7762 1411nicholas.witting@bernsteinsg.com demand to scale fromc.96GWin2025toc.110GW by2030,more thandouble theprior decade average, boosted by data centers (DCs),and broad-based powerdemandacceleration in the'gas-guzzling'US,from3 decades of<1% growth to 3-6% p.a.Whileturbine order growth moderates post-2027,B2B remains >1x, implying continued backlogexpansion.DCs now represent a visible share of‘big-3'orders (20-30%),with gasgeneration expected to meet~50% of incremental DC demand through2030. +19173448306anshika.baipai@bernste +1 917 344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com Backlogs and leadtimesprovidestrong revenuevisibility.Backlogshave expandedmaterially (+75-100% yoy for GEV and ENR),with production slots largely sold out through2028 and extending into 2030.Lead times of 3-5 years for HDGTs reinforce tightness.This ensures high utilisation despite capacity expansion,with OEMsfocused on executingbacklogratherthancompetingforincrementalvolume. Specialist Sales JamesBrady+442077625272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Pricing remains robust,supported by backlog and structural constraints.Turbinepricing has increased materially, with select projects up to +50% since 2023, supportedby broader EPC inflation.Importantly,higher pricing is embedded within backlog,withGEVadditionallyexpecting orders booked overH1'26to feature10to20 pointshigherorders convert.While costinflation shouldmoderate,thebalanced marketandpersistentbottlenecks limit downside risk to pricing. supply growth,sustained demand,strong backlogs,and pricingunderpin a favourable medium-term outlook.Gas turbinesretain structural relevance as baseloadandtransitional capacity.We see limited risk ofovercapacityandviewthis cycleasstructurallymore resilientthan priorpeaks,supporting continuedpositive positioning.Werate Siemens EnergyOutperformwith a price target of 210. GEVernova: (GEV)-Outperform, Target Price S1,206:Right place at the right time, with one eye on the short term,andanother onthelong term GEVis poisedtobecomean endto end power and electrification equipment and servicesprovider at a time when energysecurity, decarbonization and global development concerns are driving demand for their offerings. GE Vernova is staring atoverwhelming demand for turbines, as well as grid equipment. We think electrification will be the quality compounder forthe company with the grid build out that will be needed as more renewables get added. At a much lower market share of itsneeded between power generation and endapplications,and GEV can providegeneration equipment,electrical equipmentandsoftware to facilitate this integration. When you own GEV you're not buying an industrial manufacturer,you're buying the onlyscaled, vertically integrated platform that is serving the global electricity system at a time when demand is inflecting like neverbefore.GEV's pristinebalance sheet allows thema lot of future flexibility and optionality -allowing them to deploy R&D dollarsinto fuel cells, CCS, and SMRs. Bloom Energy(BE): Market-Perform:TargetPriceS276:Like thecell,waiting fortheroad map Bloom's solid oxide fuel cell platform remains the quickest to develop generation technology in our coverage, and increasinglyrelevant in a scenario where grid infrastructure can't keep up with expected load growth. We don't doubt the hardware. Wha