推动人工智能：绘制燃气轮机供应链的统一方法

Powering AI: Mapping the gas turbine supply stack - a unifiedapproach This report reframes the debate on gas turbines away from short-term peak demandconcerns toward durability of earnings, addressing investor fears of overcapacity as OEMsramp supply. Our incremental analysis integrates turbine, engine, and fuel cell capacity into aunified framework, highlighting where oversupply risk is real (mid-scale/BTM) vs overstated(HDGT). We conclude gas turbine markets are transitioning toward a more balanced yetstill tight supply-demand dynamic, with strong backlog visibility and embedded pricing,strengthening conviction in our Outperform ratings on Siemens Energy and GE Vernova. Alasdair Leslie+44 20 7762 4952alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Sunaina Ocalan.+1 917 344 8503sunaina.ocalan@bernsteinsg.com Capacity expansion is significant, though the oversupply risk can be isolated.Weestimate global turbine capacity rising >60% to ~110GW by 2030, driven almost entirelyby brownfield expansions across the ‘big-3’. This contrasts with the prior cycle’s greenfieldoverbuild. This is an important distinction: capacity can be scaled down at lower cost ifdemand normalizes, reducing downside risk. Om Kela+44 20 7550 2192om.kela@bernsteinsg.com The “supply glut” narrative is misplaced—oversupply is concentrated in mid-scalegeneration, not HDGT.Engine and fuel cell capacity additions are substantial (drivingc.70% of the >170 GW in incremental prime power capacity), but these technologies arebest suited to smaller, behind-the-meter applications. Our integrated supply stack analysisshows this capacity acts as a short-term shock absorber rather than a structural competitor.In contrast, heavy-duty gas turbines (HDGT) dominate BYOG deployments (we model ac.75% share), and remain undersupplied through 2030, despite the ‘big-3’ adding capacityof 28 GW between themselves, insulating the most important segment of OEM portfolios. Dan Corcuera-Robbins, ACA+44 20 7762 5184dan.corcuera-robbins@bernsteinsg.com Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Nicholas Witting+44 20 7762 1411nicholas.witting@bernsteinsg.com Demand remains elevated despite normalization from peak levels.We forecastdemand to scale from c.96 GW in 2025 to c.110 GW by 2030, more than double theprior decade average, boosted by data centers (DCs), and broad-based power demandacceleration in the ‘gas-guzzling’ US, from 3 decades of <1% growth to 3-6% p.a. Whileturbine order growth moderates post-2027, B2B remains >1x, implying continued backlogexpansion. DCs now represent a visible share of ‘big-3’ orders (~20-30%), with gasgeneration expected to meet ~50% of incremental DC demand through 2030. Anshika Bajpai+1 917 344 8306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com Minnie Xu+1 917 344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com Backlogs and lead times provide strong revenue visibility.Backlogs have expandedmaterially (+75-100% yoy for GEV and ENR), with production slots largely sold out through2028 and extending into 2030. Lead times of 3-5 years for HDGTs reinforce tightness.This ensures high utilisation despite capacity expansion, with OEMs focused on executingbacklog rather than competing for incremental volume. Specialist Sales James Brady+44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Pricing remains robust, supported by backlog and structural constraints.Turbinepricing has increased materially, with select projects up to +50% since 2023, supportedby broader EPC inflation. Importantly, higher pricing is embedded within backlog, withGEV additionally expecting orders booked over H1’26 to feature ‘10 to 20 points’ higherpricing (on a $m/GW basis) against 4Q’25 orders, creating a forward earnings tailwind asorders convert. While cost inflation should moderate, the balanced market and persistentbottlenecks limit downside risk to pricing. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS European Capital Goods: We remain constructive as a more balanced market supports durable earnings.Disciplinedsupply growth, sustained demand, strong backlogs, and pricing underpin a favourable medium-term outlook. Gas turbinesretain structural relevance as baseload and transitional capacity. We see limited risk of overcapacity and view this cycle asstructurally more resilient than prior peaks, supporting continued positive positioning. We rateSiemens EnergyOutperform,with a price target of €210. GE Vernova: (GEV) - Outperform, Target Price $1,206: Right place at the right time, with one eye on the short term,and another on the long term GEV is poised to become an end to end power and electrification equipment and services provider at a time when energysecurity, decarbonization and global development concerns are driving demand for their offerings. GE Vernova is staring atoverwhelming demand for turbines, as well as grid equipment. We think electrification will be the qualit