欧洲创新型长时储能（LDES）发展前景

An AFRY Report for Eurelectric June 2026 Introductory noteEXECUTIVE SUMMARY —This report focusesexclusivelyon innovative Long-Duration Energy Storage (LDES) technologies and does notcover Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (PHES), which is a mature and widely deployed technology acrossEurope and a significant contribution to meeting the underlying flexibility needs. —All monetary values presented in this report are in real 2025 money terms, unless otherwise stated. Changes in demand patterns and the expansion of intermittent renewable generationEXECUTIVE SUMMARY result in increased flexibility needs … … with new and innovative solutions emerging to meet theseEXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXISTING FLEXIBILITY SOLUTIONS LOW-CARBONTHERMALGENERATION LDES TECHNOLOGIES DEMAND FLEXIBILITY •Flexible low-carbon gas alternatives,including and H2-ready GTs and CCGTs,and less ‘flexible’ options with CCS.•The potential for CCS gas could berestricted due to resource limitations,such as carbon storage capacity.•H2-ready plants may face constraintsrelated to hydrogen availability andinfrastructure development. −Unabatedgas generation,interconnectors, hydro (includingpumped storage) and battery storage.−Challenging economics for unabatedgas in the future and/orexplicitoperational restrictions.−Limitations on economic pumpedstorage development potential. −Longer duration and different types ofelectrochemical batteries, CAES1, LCES2andhydrogen storage (in tanks orunderground). −The demand-side has the potential tocompletely change the way we useelectricity and could be the keyflexibility ‘resource’ in the future. −In the short to medium term, however,it may be challenging to reveal the fullscale of the demand-side flexibilityneeded. −LDES technologies can shift energyoverdifferent timescales, from daily tomonthly timeframes. There is a range of storage technologies that can be used to provide flexibility …EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ... and these different technologies can store energy for varying lengths of time rangingEXECUTIVE SUMMARY from a few hours to multiple days Project capacity (MW) Lithium-ion batteries are today the cheapest option with other solutions graduallyEXECUTIVE SUMMARY becoming cost-competitive EXECUTIVE SUMMARYLDES are expected to participate in a range of markets, offering different services to the power system Co-location with RES Increasing price volatility Co-locating storage with RES can lower coststhrough shared infrastructure, reducecurtailment, and in some cases enable gridaccess Most storage assets stack revenues across wholesale trading,Balancing Markets and system services, with the share dictatedby trading strategy, storage technology, and country-specificrules LDES can replace thermal generatingunits, providing frequency response,Balancing Capacity, and Balancing Energy EXECUTIVE SUMMARYLDES can help manage congestion, provide system services and ‘shift’ energy within a day and across multiple days 01. 03. 02. 04. Finland Germany Iberia Great Britain Dedicated framework and emergingLDES business case Strong business case for MDESdriven by solar penetration Opportunity for LDES givencongestion and wind levels Challenging economics for LDESdespite wind levels Need for 8–12 hour storagedriven by solar generation. Multi-day energy shifting actingas back-up capacity during lowwind periods. Multi-day energy shifting actingas back-up capacity during lowwind periods (limited by hydro). Multi-day energy shifting actingas back-up capacity during lowwind periods. Persistent and predictable within-day price spreads supportsmedium duration economics. North–south grid congestioncreates structural value forcongestion management. Hydro generation can challengeLDES economics. 25-year cap & floor scheme: helpsde-risk projects. An expected dedicated auctionfor long-duration technologiescan improve revenue certainty. Deployment of electrolysis mayflatten prices. In ‘dry’ years LDES can act as astrategic asset. Manage congestion, especially atthe Scotland–England boundary. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYAFRY has modelled a power scenario based on the TYNDP 2024 and informed by AFRY analysis in the short term We expect a significant reduction in RES curtailment with the use of LDES; this could beEXECUTIVE SUMMARY even higher in places with network congestion Our analysis suggests each GW of LDES can help save €150m-€250m of variableEXECUTIVE SUMMARY operating costs per annum Some solutions are getting close to being ‘in the money’, most notably some >24hEXECUTIVE SUMMARY storage options in Germany and GB post 2040 Total gross margins* (€/kW), real 2025 LDES: 24-168hr Iberia, as a solar-dominated region, is the most attractive market for LDES with 8-12 hrEXECUTIVE SUMMARY duration Total gross margins* (€/kW), real 2025 LDES: 8-12hr The underlying market price formation can help explain the LDES operation andEXECUTIVE SUMMARY captured margins —In GB, longer low-price events in 2040 and