AI成本可控，预计Shopify的AI变现将成为下一个重点。

ReutersSHOP.OQ BloombergSHOP US AI Costs Are Manageable; ExpectMonetization to be the Next Story Bhavin Shah, CFAResearch Analyst Following 1Q26 results, investor focus has increasingly shifted toward the impactofGenerative AI on Shopify’s financial model.Specifically,concerns haveemerged that subscription gross margins could remain under pressure due toincremental compute costs associated with Sidekick. As a result, some investorsview Shopify as at risk of being grouped with software peers that have yet todemonstratea clear path to AI monetization while seeing gross marginscompress. Against this backdrop, we attempt to quantify the financial impact of Brad ZelnickResearch Analyst Chris FountainResearch Associate Nick GiovacchiniResearch Associate We estimate Sidekick-related AI expenses were approximately ~$5mn in 1Q26which on an annualized basis would equate to a ~$20mn+ impact (assumingcontinued usage growth). On a margin basis, we see these AI costs impactingsubscription gross margins by ~50bps(with someof this offset by other AI-related savings to customer service,etc). Given our view on pricing and runningthrough 3 different scenarios (10%, 20%, and 30% effective price increase on coreSKUs), we expect the company to more than offset this incremental cost with Herein,we provide insights to our estimated costs associated with scalingadoption of Sidekick,along withourscenarios for a potential price increase and How Sidekick is Impacting Subscription Gross Margin During 1Q26, Subscription Solutions gross margins experienced seasonallyatypical q/q compression, which we believe was driven,in part,by higher compute Specifically,the cost of subscription revenue rose$25mn/19%y/y,drivenprimarily by a $22mn increase in cloud and infrastructure costs and recent filingsexplicitly note AI-related usage as a driver.We seemost ofthe y/y increasefromincreases in merchant count, traffic, and geo expansion but alsobelieve AI costspartially aided the y/y increase.While some investors are concerned AI/LLM costs While Shopify does not disclose detailed unit economics for Sidekick (e.g., tokenusage,cost per conversation),management provided several engagementdatapoints that help frame usage trends.The company disclosed engagementmetrics, including weekly active shops using Sidekick growing ~4x year-over-yearin 1Q26 executing heavy operational lifts such as generating >12k custom appsand building ~50% of all Shopify Flow automations in the quarter. Additionally in Taking this all into account, we attempt to triangulate onexactly how muchAI/LLM costs are weighing on margins through a variety of ways. First is abottom's up token build with the second approach looking at subscription grossmargin trends when adjusting for App, Themes, and Store revenues.While allapproaches are subject tomanyassumptions, we conclude that the impact from Bottom-up token build We construct a bottom-up estimate of Sidekick inference costs by leveragingavailable company disclosures (e.g., conversation volume, merchant adoption)and extrapolating from usage trends shown in recent investor materials. Whilethe analysis is inherently assumption-driven, we believe the key inputs are volume, and session intensity. We assume roughly 25% of Sidekick merchants arepower users in 1Q (up from ~20% in prior quarters given the improvements tocapabilities including App building and Flow post Winter Edition) and we anchorquarterly conversation volume to management’s disclosure of 8mn conversationsin October and distribute usage acrosscohorts by usage persona (power vs not).Finally, weusea mix of low-and high-intensity sessions, each involving multiple more granular, but we view the output as a reasonable base case, with room forhigher costs under more aggressive adoption, frequency, session-length, ormodel-mix assumptions.To provide perspective, we notethat flexing token costs AI impact on Subscription Solutions Gross Margins Trends Next, we examine thetypical seasonal trends of subscription margins andmargins ex-Apps & Themes revenue and think about what we would haveexpected in a normal Q4 to Q1 step-up. Our math is based on taking reportedGAAP subscription gross margins (LineA) and removing App/Store/Themesrelated revenue and costs (we assume 97% GM for this business). We then takethis MRR-based subscription gross margins (LineB) and analyze underlying q/qseasonal gross margin trends with increased weight on FY23 and earlyFY24 Price increaselikely; Expect it willmore than offset GMpressure Shopifyhas historically prioritized accessibility over direct monetization,choosing to price subscription offerings to maximize merchant adoption and, inturn, GMV. While we expect this philosophy to remain intact, the scale of recent As in 2023, we would not be surprised to see Shopify implement price increasesacross its core subscription tiers (Basic, Grow, Advanced) in the medium term.Ourchannel checks indicate Sidekick is a key driver of perceived value