大摩：将村田制作所上调为首选标的，太阳诱电评级降至减持

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Shoji SatoEquity AnalystShoji.Sato@morganstanleymufg.com Murata Mfg Now Our Top Pick,Lowering Taiyo Yuden to UW Sota HarashimaEquity AnalystSota.Harashima@morganstanleymufg.com We expect 3-yr CAGR of demand for high value-added MLCCs inAI and data center applications of ~100%. We think Murata Mfgwill benefit the most from increased demand and product miximprovement, while Taiyo Yuden may only see modest benefits Key Takeaways We forecast 3-year global MLCC demand CAGR at 18.2%, with 100% CAGR forhigh value-added compact products with large capacity for AI & data center use. Murata (No.1 global share for MLCCs at 40.8% in 2025) benefits the most fromrising demand for high value-added products in AI & data center applications. Taiyo Yuden (No.3 global share for MLCCs at 11.3% in 2025) is likely to see onlymodest benefits from improved product mix driven by compact products withlarger capacity, despite the prospect of steady rise in MLCC sales and profits. Reiterating OW for Murata Mfg as Top Pick, lowering Taiyo Yuden to UW:ForMurata, we boost our forecasts and DCF-based PT from ¥5,100 to ¥12,500. Whilethe share price has already increased 210% thus far in 2026, we see room for anadditional 24% increase and reiterate our OW rating as our Top Pick. For TaiyoYuden, we lift our forecasts and increase our DCF-based PT from ¥4,700 to Large Murata's share price upside given stable supply of high value-addedproducts for AI server & data center use:In F3/26, MLCCs contributed 51% ofoverall sales at Murata and 71% at Taiyo Yuden, and we expect MLCCs to driveearnings expansion at both from F3/27. We expect high value-added compactproducts with large capacity used by AI servers and data centers to significantlyexpand MLCC demand. With hefty sustained increase in total MLCC capacity Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. Widening gap between Taiyo Yuden’s share price and potential earnings:Weforecast sustained growth in earnings at Taiyo Yuden (No.3 11.3% global share forMLCCs) with rising sales and higher facility utilization as MLCC demand expands, += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. (1) Investment conclusion & report overview (1) For Murata Mfg, we boost our earnings forecast as shown in Exhibit 3 and raise ourprice target from ¥5,100 to ¥12,500. We reiterate our OW rating and recommend thisstock as our Top Pick. We see room for a 39% increase in Murata Mfg’s share price over (2) For Taiyo Yuden, we lift our earnings forecast as shown in Exhibit 4 and increase ourprice target from ¥4,700 to ¥12,500. We lower our rating from EW to UW. We see roomfor a 25% decline in Taiyo Yuden’s share price over the next 12-18 months. (3) We expect MLCC (multilayer ceramic capacitor) business to expand earnings at MurataMfg and Taiyo Yuden: In F3/26, MLCC business contributed 51% of overall sales at MurataMfg and 71% of sales at Taiyo Yuden, and we expect MLCCs to drive earnings expansion atboth companies from F3/27. While earnings growth paces have been outpacing the marketconsensus at both companies, share-price gains thus far in 2026 through 15 June were171% for Murata Mfg and 338% for Taiyo Yuden. These results show outperformance byTaiyo Yuden. P/Es using our F3/31 fully-diluted EPS estimates are Murata Mfg at 20.8x and (4) Our 18.2% CAGR forecast for MLCC global shipment value through 2028 significantlyexceeds 6.5% CAGR over the past 10 years: Global MLCC shipment value rose 10.3% YoYto $14.67bn in 2025 with estimated market shares at 40.8% for Murata Mfg, 22.5% forSEMCO, 11.3% for Taiyo Yuden, 6.9% for TDK, 5.4% for Yageo, and a combined 13.0% forothers (besides the top five). While global MLCC shipment value expanded at a 6.5%CAGR over the 10 years from 2015’s $7.80bn through 2025, we forecast an increase in (5) Murata Mfg leads in compact large-capacity MLCCs for AI servers: Murata Mfg startedvolume production and shipment of 1005-size 1μF MLCCs in 2000 and has continued tobe a pioneer in compact large-capacity MLCCs, including the launch of volume productionand shipment of 0402-size 1μF and 1005-size 22μF MLCCs in 2020. For AI servers,demand is significantly increasing for 1608-size 100μF, 1005-size 47μF, and 0603-size 10μF (6) Gap between companies relying on price hikes and companies continually improvingproduct capabilities likely to widen over the longer term: Ma