2026年葡萄酒市场报告

Wine Industry Partnership BMO WINE & SPIRITS GROUPBAKER TILLY Among U.S. wineries, 71% expectthe market to have bounced backwithin three years and 38% are The third edition of this annual report finds global trade strained even further than it was at thistime last year. While refunds are expected from tariffs enacted by the U.S. government, the impact The trade disputes of last year have been followed by new fightingbetween old enemies in the crossroads of global trade. While afragile ceasefire was in place as this report was being produced, theconflicts in the Middle East have already led to stunning increases infuel prices that have further eroded consumer confidence. Economic This year’s report examines the rapidly changing U.S. wine market,which remains the world’s largest but has become smaller in recentyears as total market volume continues to decline. It’s now clear thatthe challenges in the wine market come from historic, structural Yet Americans spent more money on wine last year than in anyprevious period. While some of that increase in total revenue is fromprice increases and inflation, it’s clear there remains plenty ofopportunity if American wineries can innovate and capture theinterest of the next generation of wine drinkers. It’s a daunting During the last economic crisis — the Great Recession, which endednearly 20 years ago — Americans generally shifted to moreaffordable wines but their total consumption remained the same.That was followed by a steady shift to more expensive wine as theeconomy recovered and this premiumization trend persisted until The rest of 2026 and the next year will see more change andchallenges in the wine market, but this period of transition will be An acrimonious trade dispute between Canada and the U.S. saw thesingle most valuable export market for American wine essentiallydisappear overnight. The 2025 edition of this report included a specialfocus on the Canadian wine industry that has benefited in the past Total U.S. wine market volume is now aboutthe same as a decade ago, yet the number Executive Summary Total U.S. market value grew 3% to more than $115 billion in 2025, but that growth obscuresanother consecutive year of declining market volume with the previous year seeing a 4% loss to 362 million 9L cases.In less than a decade, the amount of wine entering the U.S. market from California has declined nearly 25%. Wine is not alone as the entire beverage alcohol sector continues to suffer a demand problem exacerbated by layoffs,rising fuel prices, a new generation of anti-alcohol rhetoric and political and economic instability. Growers and wineries Adam BeakManaging Director and Head, Wine & Spirits Key findings Table of contents Total U.S. consumer spending on wine in 2025grew 3% to more than $115 billion and totalmarket value is more than $40 billion larger Introduction Fewer of wine’s best customersDrinking less but spending moreHazards on the route to marketConclusionSources for this reportAppendix charts A larger share of smaller wineries are findingsuccess creating private label brands, with nearly20% of wineries producing fewer than 5,000 cases Sales of flavored wines grew 12% in 2025 tomore than 35 million cases while sparklingfell 3% to 31 million cases. Forty-five percent of people between the ages of21 to 28 say they’re interested in drinking morewine as are 38% of the Millennial generation thathas surpassed Boomers to account for the largest People of all ages are drinking less alcohol in general,but the higher cost of wine relative to other beverage Introduction and the decline was abrupt because the industry has been slow to respond to years of changes in its consumer base.The decline in wine supply is the direct result of the drop in wine demand, and the most visible, immediate impact ofthe challenges wine has been experiencing for years. California’s grape market had begun to tip to excess since theprevious decade, but wildfires, the COVID-19 pandemic, and other disruptions obscured that imbalance and put off the Despite the challenges, thousands of wineries did grow their business last year and many are expecting more growththis year. Leaner, more efficient and leveraging new technology to do more and faster than ever, these companies havesuccessfully protected their share and may be able to acquire additional assets to take advantage of a market recoverymost wineries expect to see within three years. Several of the largest producers are now under the leadership of new The most recent harvest is notably small when compared to thestate’s record winegrape haul that occurred just seven years prior in2018 when California growers produced 4.3 million tons. The 2018 cropwas nearly 10% more than the prior year and edged out the previousrecord of 4.24 million tons set in 2013. Ideal weather conditions letgrowers and winemakers push hangtime, and market conditions This report is focused on the U.S. wine market and while wine h