2025年全球精品葡萄酒市场年度回顾报告

D E C E M B E R 2 0 2 5 Liv-ex 2025 TheFineWineMarket in 2025 A degree of optimism has returned to the market over Q3-4, with major Liv-exindices rising consistently since September.With the introduction of tariffs, US buyers – 2024's most significant buying segment– have taken a backseat this year. Introduction It took three years for the major Liv-ex indices to rise, but in September they finallydid. They have since ticked up steadily each month, giving the fine wine market adegree of optimism as we head towards the end of the year. Before getting ahead of After 2024’s consistent downward grind, this year started on a more positive note –trade value and volumes rose in the first two months, signs perhaps that the stock Then on March 13th President Trump threatened 200% tariffs on EU alcohol, a gutpunch that winded the market. With April 2nd’s Liberation Day confirming tariffs onEuropean wine at 15%, US buyers withdrew. This posed a problem to the fragile fine The results were immediate – April saw the Liv-ex indices post their biggest lossessince 2023, with regions like Champagne and Italy which had benefited from After a Bordeaux En Primeur campaign that saw many producers drop their prices only Liv-ex 2025 monthly tradevalueandvolumeevolution However, as merchants returned from the break, some positive signs started toemerge. Bid:offer ratios – a barometer of market sentiment and reliable indicatorof future price movements – started to rise. Prices in turn followed suit, with The result of all this is total trade value is down 5.0% on 2024. On the other hand, Wines tradedonLiv-ex 2025 is on track to close with a similar number of unique vintages (LWIN11s) andbrands (LWIN7s) traded as each year since 2021. Increasedtradefor lower-pricedwines TheLiv-ex 1000(the broadest measure of the market) is down 4.5% year-to- date. Meanwhile the average cost per case traded is -12.6%. This indicates thatwhile the overall footprint of wines traded has remained similar over the past fiveyears, 2025 has seen increased trade volumes for lower-priced wines. Liv-ex indices vsequities As fine wine has continued to struggle, equities and gold have soared. This isconsistent with past performance – historically there has been little correlationbetween mainstream asset classes and fine wine. One might argue that just afraction of the huge wealth that has been created this year need trickle into the The one geography where we might see a closer relationship in 2025 is HongKong. With the Hang Seng picking up, we’ve seen trade for top end Burgundy risein the region and heard news of it being more consistently bought and drunk in Currency overview 2025 has been eventful for FX markets. With tariffs directly impacting USD andforming a part of Trump’s long-term ambition to weaken the dollar, fine wine hasbecome more expensive for US buyers. Year-to-date the USD is down 6.3% European buyers tend to buy from European sellers, reducing the impact of astrengthening Euro. Thus, we might attribute the additional European purchase Buyer geography overview While nobody expected tariffs to land at the 200% level threatened in March, itwas clear that alcohol was in the firing line or at least considered a useful A degree of certainty came on April 2nd – Liberation Day – whoseannouncements resulted in US bid exposure dropping 80% overnight. Despite a slight return of demand over Q3-4 and after a solid start to the year, USpurchase value is 43.6% below the 2024 level. As the year has progressed, European buyers have taken up the slack. Year-to-date, European purchase value is up 48.2% on 2024. Tuscan wine has been the At the same time,as we reported in June, there are indications of a change insentiment in the Asian market. The increased trade still remains stop-start in Regionalbreakdown oftrade Bordeaux tradesharefallsagain Bordeaux’s average trade share slipped again this year, down from 36.3% to35.5%. The region appears to be at an inflection point. Without dwelling too much on the 2024 En Primeur campaign, it was fairlydisastrous.Sales from top UK merchants were down 60%as offers were metwith buyer apathy. Despite often significant cuts, merchants openly criticisedcertain release prices and only offered a reduced selection of wines. The supply Beyond En Primeur, however, recent months have seen glimmers of hope emerge.TheFine Wine 50– which tracks the First Growths and is a gauge of sentiment inthe wider Bordeaux market – has risen for the past three months. Bid:offer ratios FineWine50 indexandbid:offer ratio Burgundy’s sharefalters 2025 has seen Burgundy’s share fall from 22.5% to 21.4%. There is a divergencebetween the very top of the market (as represented by theBurgundy 150) andthe rest. At the top end, we are seeing demand and supply start to reset, with Italy 100–still thefaceofresilience? With the withdrawal of the US market in April, theItaly 100, which hadconsistently held up better than the w