投行视角下2026年并购市场的动态演变

How Investment Bankers View the 2026 M&A Market Shaping Up As we move through the second quarter of 2026, investment bankers are signaling a meaningful shiftin market sentiment. According to FTI Consulting’s latest survey of leading investment bankers acrosssectors, deal activity has accelerated from where it stood a year ago, and forward-looking confidence iseven stronger. Whereas 2025 was defined by caution and selective engagement, 2026 is showing signs The shift is not uniform, as sector-specific dynamics,including tariff exposure, AI disruption and regulatorytransition, continue to create divergent conditions. But theoverall direction is clear: the market is moving, and mostbankers expect that momentum to hold or build over the Consumer Services & Retailare also trending in the rightdirection.Telecom, Media & Technology (“TMT”)is thenotable exception, where sentiment has moderated fromelevated levels. Across the board, bankers note that deal This represented the most dramatic recovery in thisyear’s survey. After rating current activity at just 3.5 in2025, bankers now rate the sector at 7.5, with a three-to-six-month outlook of 8.0. Improved regulatory clarity, Sector Views | A Broader Recovery, WithNotable Exceptions Investment bankers report improved conditions acrossmost sectors, withAerospace & Defense,BusinessProducts & ServicesandIndustrialsshowing the most Rating Scores | Confidence Is Building Sentiment continues to build on the momentum observedas we entered 2025. Current activity is rated at 7.1, upfrom 5.3 last year, with a forward-looking score of 7.4.Automation, cloud infrastructure and technology-enabled Overall sentiment among investment bankers has improvedsubstantially heading into mid-2026. ExcludingTMT, everysector posted higher current activity scores relative to 2025,and forward-looking outlook scores exceed current activity Aerospace & Defenseshows the largest year-over-year gain,rising more than four points on current activity.BusinessProducts & ServicesandIndustrialsalso reflect strongupward movement, whileHealthcareandConsumer Conditions have improved modestly, with current activityrated at 5.6, up from 5.3 in 2025. The three-to-six-monthoutlook of 6.4 reflects cautious optimism as tariff-drivenuncertainty eases in select categories. High-quality assets The sector remains measured, with current activity ratedat 6.0 and a forward outlook of 6.1. Respondents notethat regulatory transition concerns that weighed on 2025activity have begun to ease, though investor hesitancy Current activity is rated at 6.8, up from 5.2 in 2025, whilethe forward outlook remains at 6.8. Bankers report thatwhile tariff-driven uncertainty has not fully resolved, buyersand sellers have become more adept at pricing risk into The only sector where sentiment has pulled back, withcurrent activity rated at 5.8 versus 6.6 in 2025, and aforward outlook of 5.5. Bankers attribute the moderationto sustained valuation pressure in software, ongoing (0 = No activity, 10 = Extremely active | Past refers to ratings as of May 2025.Current refers to ratings as of May 2026. The rating scores are averagedfrom all respondents, and the sample size for each sector varies.) Integrated Advisory | Bankers Signal Clear Streamlined communication and bundled pricing tied forthe highest scores, reflecting that bankers see integrationas delivering value on two equally important fronts: processquality and cost. The communication finding reflects thepractical reality that sell-side processes are often derailed This year’s survey also asked bankers to weigh in on thevalue of an integrated “one-stop shop” advisory modelin sell-side processes; one that brings together financial, The results are consistent and clear: across all fourdimensions, bankers rated the value of integration at 7.1 That bundled pricing ranked equally high signals somethingimportant: in a market where sellers are increasinglyfocused on maximizing proceeds and managing transactioncosts, cost consolidation is not a secondary consideration. The strength of these scores across all four dimensionsreinforces a consistent theme: bankers see real value inadvisory relationships that can hold a coherent sell-sidestory together from preparation through close, rather William Clogg Justin McCarty Senior Managing Directorwilliam.clogg@fticonsulting.com Senior Managing Directorjustin.mccarty@fticonsulting.com The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, Inc., its management, its subsidiaries,its affiliates, or its other professionals. FTI Consulting, Inc., including its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a consulting firm and is not a certifiedpublic accounting firm or a law firm. FTI Consulting is the leading global expert firm for organizations facing crisis and transformation. FTI Consulting is dedicated to helping organizations manage change, mitigate risk and resolve disputes: financial, legal, o