投行视角下2026年并购市场的动态演变

How Investment Bankers View the 2026 M&A Market Shaping Up As we move through the second quarter of 2026, investment bankers are signaling a meaningful shiftin market sentiment. According to FTI Consulting’s latest survey of leading investment bankers acrosssectors, deal activity has accelerated from where it stood a year ago, and forward-looking confidence iseven stronger. Whereas 2025 was defined by caution and selective engagement, 2026 is showing signsof broader re-engagement, with bankers reporting improved access to financing, a more constructiveregulatory environment and growing pressure to deploy capital that has sat on the sidelines. The shift is not uniform, as sector-specific dynamics,including tariff exposure, AI disruption and regulatorytransition, continue to create divergent conditions. But theoverall direction is clear: the market is moving, and mostbankers expect that momentum to hold or build over thenext three-to-six months. While completed deal volumesin early 2026 have remained selective, banker sentimentpoints in one direction, and most expect that to translateinto accelerating activity through the remainder of the year. Consumer Services & Retailare also trending in the rightdirection.Telecom, Media & Technology (“TMT”)is thenotable exception, where sentiment has moderated fromelevated levels. Across the board, bankers note that dealcommittees are becoming less reactive to macro noise andmore focused on long-term strategic fit and asset quality. Aerospace & Defense This represented the most dramatic recovery in thisyear’s survey. After rating current activity at just 3.5 in2025, bankers now rate the sector at 7.5, with a three-to-six-month outlook of 8.0. Improved regulatory clarity,stronger defense budgets and renewed access to financinghave all contributed to a more active deal environment.Respondents indicate that deal processes that were pausedor delayed are now moving forward. Sector Views | A Broader Recovery, WithNotable Exceptions Investment bankers report improved conditions acrossmost sectors, withAerospace & Defense,BusinessProducts & ServicesandIndustrialsshowing the mostsignificant upward movement, whileHealthcareand Rating Scores | Confidence Is Building Business Products & Services Sentiment continues to build on the momentum observedas we entered 2025. Current activity is rated at 7.1, upfrom 5.3 last year, with a forward-looking score of 7.4.Automation, cloud infrastructure and technology-enabledservices remain focal points for both strategic and financialsponsors, with AI integration increasingly influencing howacquirers assess value and scalability. Overall sentiment among investment bankers has improvedsubstantially heading into mid-2026. ExcludingTMT, everysector posted higher current activity scores relative to 2025,and forward-looking outlook scores exceed current activityin five of seven sectors, a meaningful signal that bankersexpect conditions to continue improving. Aerospace & Defenseshows the largest year-over-year gain,rising more than four points on current activity.BusinessProducts & ServicesandIndustrialsalso reflect strongupward movement, whileHealthcareandConsumerServices & Retail, while still measured, are trending in theright direction. Consumer Services & Retail Conditions have improved modestly, with current activityrated at 5.6, up from 5.3 in 2025. The three-to-six-monthoutlook of 6.4 reflects cautious optimism as tariff-drivenuncertainty eases in select categories. High-quality assetscontinue to command premium valuations, and financialsponsors with meaningful dry powder are increasinglyactive in identifying entry points. Healthcare The sector remains measured, with current activity ratedat 6.0 and a forward outlook of 6.1. Respondents notethat regulatory transition concerns that weighed on 2025activity have begun to ease, though investor hesitancyaround reimbursement risk and policy visibility persists.Consumer health platforms continue to attract the mostconsistent deal interest. Industrials Current activity is rated at 6.8, up from 5.2 in 2025, whilethe forward outlook remains at 6.8. Bankers report thatwhile tariff-driven uncertainty has not fully resolved, buyersand sellers have become more adept at pricing risk intotransaction structures. Carve-outs, PE-driven processesand businesses with strong domestic manufacturingpositioning are leading deal flow. TMT The only sector where sentiment has pulled back, withcurrent activity rated at 5.8 versus 6.6 in 2025, and aforward outlook of 5.5. Bankers attribute the moderationto sustained valuation pressure in software, ongoinginterest-rate sensitivity and a recalibration of AI-drivengrowth expectations. That said, infrastructure-scaletransactions, particularly in data centers and connectivity,continue to attract strong interest from both strategic andfinancial buyers. Streamlined communication and bundled pricing tied forthe highest scores, reflecting that bankers see integrat