锂电价值链调查：暂时回调，信号分歧

Equity Research USA | Chemicals Lithium Value Chain Survey: TemporaryPullback, Diverging Signals Our survey of lithium converters (77% of sales in China) and battery materialsproducers (73%) highlights decelerating battery volumes and a weaker backlog,translating into converters expecting >10% price declines in Q3. New ordershave decelerated and confidence in those orders has decreased. Inventories Source: Jefferies Proprietary Survey Source: Jefferies Proprietary SurveyChart 3 - Inventories % YoY - Volumes % YoY Source: Jefferies Proprietary SurveyChart 4 - Order Backlog: >50% = Expanding Source: Jefferies Proprietary Survey Source: Jefferies Proprietary SurveyChart 5 - Sales Next Month, % YoY Source: Jefferies Proprietary Survey Source: Jefferies Proprietary Survey Laurence Alexander * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.com Kevin Estok * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8516 | kestok@jefferies.comDaniel Rizzo * | Equity Analyst Xianrao Zhu * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8742 | xzhu@jefferies.com Source: Jefferies Proprietary Survey Source: Jefferies Proprietary Survey Carol Jiang * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-1714 | cjiang@jefferies.com Analyst Certification:I, Laurence Alexander, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views I, Kevin Estok, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed I, Daniel Rizzo, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed I, Xianrao Zhu, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed I, Carol Jiang, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives compensationbased in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR) Recommendation PublishedRecommendation Distributed Explanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period. Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period. The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more within a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average security price consistentlybelow $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform rated securities with an NR - The investment rating and price target have been temporarily suspended. Such suspensions are in compliance with applicable regulations and/or Jefferiespolicies. Restricted - Describes issuers where, in conjunction with Jefferies engagement in certain transactions, company policy or applicable securities regulationsprohibit certain types of communications, including investment recommendations. Monitor - Describes securities whose company fundamentals and financials are being monitored, and for which no financial projections or opinions on theinvestment merits of the company are provided. Valuation MethodologyJefferies' methodology for assigning ratings may include the following: market capitalization, maturity, growth/value,