印度混动汽车拐点：谁在布局？

India Autos: The hybrid inflection - who's positioned? India’s strong-hybrid market is still nascent, but why is it so small, and are we close to aninflection? We tackle both questions, along with positioning, in this report. Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com India has, almost inadvertently, stress-tested hybrid demand: ~8 strong hybrid modelsversus 35-40 BEVs. Larger hybrids (>4m) are taxed at 40%, no different from large ICESUVs, while EVs sit at 5%. There is no central subsidy, and the only meaningful statesupport (UP road tax waiver) lapsed in Oct’25. Yet strong-hybrid sales still grew 85%+ in2025, outpacing BEVs. That is what genuine product-market fit looks like, even with clear Param Shah+91 226 842 1417param.shah@bernsteinsg.com We see strong hybrids scaling from ~2.3% of PVs today to 7–8% by 2030, driven by anear-doubling of the model catalog by FY28, policy notwithstanding. The 40% GST walland improving BEV economics are real risks, so our conviction is deliberately anchored tothe back half of the decade. Through FY30, as supply unlocks, the beneficiaries should be Our arguments: (a) Nascency reflects supply, not demand. 83% growth in 2025 from just eight models,taxed at 40% and unsubsidized, is a clear revealed-preference signal. Products that do not (b) The key constraint, model availability, eases in FY28. A launch wave (Maruti’s in-houseseries-HEV across Fronx, then Swift/Baleno; Hyundai Creta hybrid; Kia Seltos hybrid;Renault Duster E-Tech; Mahindra XUV 3XO) more than doubles the lineup and targetsthe₹1-2.5mnsweet spot. Maruti is not waiting on policy: in the Victoris, features likepanoramic sunroof, 360° camera, ADAS, and ventilated seats are reserved for the hybrid (c) The tax wall is real. GST 2.0 keeps hybrids aligned with ICE (40% for large, 18% forsmall). While current Maruti models are at 40%, several upcoming models should qualify for18%, widening the gap versus EVs. Our thesis does not rely on policy turning favorable. (d) Residuals and running costs remain underappreciated. Hybrids depreciate ~35% overfive years versus >60% for BEVs and avoid charging constraints. In a fast-formalizing used- (e) Global signals support demand but flag policy risk. Hybrids have outpaced BEVs in theUS, EU, and Japan as subsidies fade, but China shows policy can effectively switch off apowertrain. India is different, but not immune. (f) We are constructive through FY30, not indefinitely. Falling BEV costs are the long-termrisk, though bounded. States like Kerala and Karnataka are already rolling back EV taxbenefits, limiting any meaningful convergence before 2030. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We areOutperformon Maruti Suzuki and M&M. Maruti has built powertrain optionality on purpose: its FY31 ambition points to ~35% CNG/CBG, ~25% ICE, ~25% and 15%EV - mix that is engineered to win whichever of those powertrain actually penetrates. It does not need to be right about the The decisive move is the in-house series-hybrid system, debuting on the Fronx in 2027 and spreading to the Swift and Baleno.It does two things at once. It strips out the Toyota licensing cost that has kept strong hybrids at a premium-SUV price point. Andby targeting 35+ kmpl in a sub-4m body that already qualifies for the 18% small-car GST slab, it drags the strong hybrid downtoward INR1-1.5mn - into the heart of the market for the first time. That is the catalog expansion and the price unlock in a single Mahindra is the more interesting problem. It has been the loudest EV-first voice in the room: it classifies hybrids under “petrol,”and it opposed hybrid incentives. Their posture and position is clear. Hence, if Hybrids inflect more in the coming years vs BEVs,their huge EV bet might look early. But Mahindra is not all unhedged, and pretending otherwise would be lazy. It is developing a strong-hybrid XUV 3XO for 2026(tentative) and range-extenders for the BE 6 and XEV 9e - a deliberate straddle that lets it pivot if the data turns. Hence, itshybrid hedge is real but later and thinner than Maruti’s, and its public EV conviction raises the cost of being wrong. Hence, theperformance would be asymmetric to the downside if hybrids inflect on schedule, vindicated if Chinese-style BEV cost declines DETAILS INDIA BUYS AS MANY HYBRIDS AS IT IS OFFERED EXHIBIT 2:India’s strong hybrid retail volumes grew ~85% in CY25, against a stable count of model catalog In 2025, with 8 strong-hybrid models on sale against more than 35-40 EVs, hybrid sales grew 83%. One could argue thegrowth flatters the picture three ways: it is off a low base; it is a Toyota number, not a market number; and it is concentrated intwo SUV-MPV body styles that happen to be where India’s money is moving regardless. Each is partly true. Toyota holds north of80% of the segment. The Innova Hycross and Hyryder alone are roughly three-quarters of all hybrid volume. But every one of those objections is itself a catalog