执行推动上涨一——BGN上调至买入

Italy | Banks Execution Driving Upside – BGN Raised to Buy We upgrade Banca Generali to Buy, withc.20% potential upside, as flows areturning and visibility improves, with April–May momentum supporting a clearerinflection into 2H26. The Alleanza partnership and Intermonte acquisitionshould structurally lift margins and commissions, yet we still view their impact—and rate upside—as under-reflected in consensus EPS. Reiterate Buy on Fineco,supported by solid inflows and incremental earnings from pipeline initiatives. Banca Generali, upgraded to Buy: Banca Generali has been the subject of growing client interestsince the end of 2025, mainly thanks to the Alleanza partnership and the deployment of theIntermonte acquisition. We remained on the sidelines until now, as business results were moredownbeat compared to those of direct competitors. However, both April and May flows haveshown clear business momentum, and we expect the delivery of the two projects to sustain thatmomentum in 2H26. We think consensus is not fully embedding the upside from these initiativesor from the higher rates; thus, we see upside risk to consensus EPS (mid single digits in '26 and '27and high single digits in '28). A new business plan presentation, expected in 2H26 can be a catalyst.BGN trades at 13.3x FY28 earnings, our PT of €70 implies c20% upside potential. At Banca Generali, new business initiatives are expected to support flows and margins from2H26 onwards, notably through the Alleanza partnership, which should improve margins on AuM,deposits and AuC flows, and the Intermonte acquisition (completed in 2025), which is set todeliver revenue synergies, boost commission income and strengthen the group’s ability to captureentrepreneur-related business across both CIB and private banking. The Mediobanca takeoverattempt in 2025 temporarily reduced business visibility, weighing on flows and recruitment;however, as the situation normalized, visibility improved, recruitment trends strengthened and netinflows began to recover, supporting expectations for a rebound in net asset inflows in 2H26, withfinancial advisors showing a 3% YoY increase in 1Q, up from 2.2% YoY growth in previous quarters. Reiterate Buy on Fineco:We see upside from the various projects in the pipeline at Fineco, namelythe launch of the securities lending business (2H26), the roll-out of the platform in other geographies(2H26), and the launch of the new, AI-powered Fineco App (2027), the launch of crypto trading (assoon as approvals are received). In this note, we focus on the EPS upside from Securities Lendingand estimate a single-digit positive EPS effect, which we now include in our numbers. The wealth ofupcoming projects, together with record-high inflows, keep us positive on this name. We see upsidevs the consensus estimate of low single digits in 2026 and 2027 and high single digits in 2028,driven by higher revenues. FBK trades at 14.4x FY28 earnings. Source: Jefferies, Company data Reiterate Hold on Banca Mediolanum. The business has done remarkably well over 2025 and in2026 in terms of AuM flows; however, we feel the investment case is well understood, and we seeless EPS upside vs the Street than peers. Hence, we reiterate our Hold rating. BMED trades at 12.1xFY28 earnings. Estimate changes: We increase our EPS by c.5% on average, mainly on higher rate assumptions(3M Euribor at 250bps by 3Q26 vs 200bps before), a more detailed modeling of the Alleanza andIntermonte initiatives at Banca Generali, and our fresh estimate of revenues from securities lendingat Fineco. Higher EPS explains higher target prices, alongside lower CoE at BGN. Marco Nicolai * | Equity Analyst+39 02 3601 1946 | mnicolai@jefferies.com Joseph Dickerson * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8309 | jdickerson@jefferies.com Summary of Changes Banca Generali Banca Generali has been the subject of growing client interest since the end of 2025, mainly thanksto the Alleanza partnership and the deployment of the Intermonte acquisition. We remained on thesidelines until now, as business results were more downbeat compared to those of direct competitors.However, April and May flows have shown clear business momentum, and we expect the delivery ofthe two projects to sustain that momentum in 2H26. We think consensus is not fully embedding theupside from these initiatives, or the benefit from higher rates. Thus, we see upside risk on consensusEPS (mi single digits in '26 and '27 and high single digits in '28). A new business plan presentation,expected in 2H26 could be a catalyst. Banca Generali, bumpy flows to take a more decisive upward trend in 2H We expect improving momentum in flows at Banca Generali, as demonstrated by the most recentdatapoints Exhibit 6). Our reasons for this increased momentum are as follows: •First, new business initiatives are expected to support flows and margins from 2H26 and beyond.Two main initiatives are: I) the partnership with Alleanza, which will lead to improved