伯恩斯坦能源：运用五大‘W’分析上游资本支出超级周期——我们不认同

Bernstein Energy: Applying the 5 "W"s to an upstream capexsupercycle...we are unconvinced Today, we use our outlook for global upstream oil & gas capital expenditures (BernsteinEnergy: Global Upstream Capex 2026...the quantity of capex falls now...does the quality ofcapex follow?) to consider the current environment. We still see apullback of ~$40 blnupstream capex in 2026 driven by lagging company conservatism in uncertain oiland geopolitical environment. Public E&Ps remain disciplined, OFS companies are notmaterially resetting FY26 guidance higher, shale productivity gains are harder to achieve, anda large share of discovered resources remains undeveloped because the barrels are long-cycle, politically difficult, or no longer cheap to develop. Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Minnie Xu+1 917 344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com Anshika Bajpai+1 917 344 8306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com In a post Strait of Hormuz world, we would expect perhaps ~$560 bln in total upstreamcapex Exhibit 1, ~$50 bln more from our previous forecast in Jan 2026, when Brentaveraged ~$70/bbl. Today, Brent is ~$90/bbl,but we’d expect planning prices haverisen to at most $70/bbl. In this note, we use the five-W framework to assess the likelihood of an upstream capexsupercycle. 1.WHY invest? Cash flow is up, but reinvestment appetite is not.Higher Brent hasimproved E&P cash flow, but investors continue to reward capital discipline, buybacksand free cash flow durability over production growth (Exhibit 3 - Exhibit 7. 2.WHAT barrels get developed?Roughly 1/3 of the discovered resources over the pastcentury remains undeveloped (Exhibit 8) with deepwater + barrels leading discoveries.The problem is that those deepwater barrels are increasingly harder to convert intosupply (Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10). Shale barrels are content to plateau (Exhibit 12) whileoil sands barrels (Exhibit 13) need more clarity. 3.WHO will invest? NOCs, not public E&Ps, lead the next cycle.The marginal growthbarrel is increasingly controlled by NOCs and state-directed players, not U.S. shaleindependents (Exhibit 14 - Exhibit 16). 4.WHERE can capital go? The best geology is often in the worst jurisdictions.Many of the largest undeveloped barrels sit in countries with high fiscal take, politicalinstability, sanctions or weak rule of law (Exhibit 17 -Exhibit 18) 5.WHEN to invest?Usually, high oil prices trigger a sharp pickup in rig activity, but thatpattern has broken down this time, and we have not yet seen any raise of guidance fromoil services and equipment companies ( Exhibit 19 - Exhibit 20). Upstream inflation alsomeans companies are spending more simply to hold activity flat. Finally, we highlight that oil price has outperformed E&P equities year to date (Exhibit 21).The thesis of higher for longer prices driving better than historic volume growth is not onethat we find resonating. Instead we’d suggest that as we exit the current crisis and the Strait reopens, the dominanttheme will be a comfortable oil price with a powerful floor (refilling strategic reservesat $70+?) where excess free cash flow is rapidly collected by E&Ps and returned toshareholders. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Capex discipline and a normalizing price might be an attractive entry point for oily E&Ps. We have outperform ratings on FANG,COP and DVN. DETAILS SYNTHESIZING THE 5 “W”S … WE EXPECT ONLY TWEAKS TO UPSTREAM CAPEX It is reasonable to assume somewhat higher upstream capex than in our previous forecast, as stronger Brent prices haveencouraged some less disciplined operators to step up investment, driving a gradual increase into 2027. Once Brent pricesnormalize to $75/bbl in 2028 under our price deck, we expect upstream spending to trend lower again to our long run views. Our capex model takes oil price assumptions as a strong driver, but despite the price on the screen (and risks of higher prices),we do not use, say, current ~$90 Brent for our capex model as we don’t believe planning prices have fundamentally changed ina post Strait of Hormuz world, especially given (1) the uncertainty, and (2) the strong desire for the market to want lower prices.We have always perhaps believed that inflation was closer to a popular delusion than a law of physics. Our favorite author, PhilipK. Dick, argued “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.” Apparently oil economics can defy realityfor now. In any case, we provide our (unimpressive) capex forecast below reflecting our view of the current situation. Then we apply a 5 “W” framework to support our view. WHY... ...INVEST IN UPSTREAM CAPEX? because reserve replacement ultimately matters Reserve lives (ex long cycle projects such as LNG) are unimpressive amongst E&Ps and integrateds. Furthermore, shale‘resources’ have created a comfort cushion that was lacking say 15 years ago (a strong internal conviction that resources canbe migrated to reserves an