资金动向专题：趁市场处于周期末段减仓，关注特定资产

Give Ps a chance 11 June 2026 Scores on the Doors: oil 50.4%, intl stocks 9.3%, SPX 8.0%, cash 1.6%, US$ 1.5%, HYbonds 1.5%, IG bonds 0.1%, govt bonds -1.3%, gold -2.9%, bitcoin -27.5% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“...all that, plus the Knicks as Champs, I mean you couldn’t script a better top.” The Price is Right: 3Ps of bullish Positioning, bullish Profit expectations, Policy flippingfrom rate cuts to hikes…keep taking trading chips off table until tighter financialconditions peak once Warsh turns hawkish at the July 29thFOMC. Tale of the Tape: inflation >4%, Trump inflation approval @ 27% (below Biden lows -Chart 4), US oil inventories down to 48 days (close to 45-year lows–Chart 5), policymaker conviction best route to“America First”via“Wall Street First”…why rush to endUS-Iran conflict; best contrarian“peace”winners…consumer stocks, REITs (new highsthis week), Europe, deleveraged crypto & gold, EM FX esp. India, Indonesia. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: booms & bubbles ended by bonds (punitive cost of capital),leaders (not a good look if“cheap”MAGS can’t hold $65), or elections (voters wantingmore jobs or lower inflation); we’re getting there...but for now asset allocation frozenbullish, positioned for late-cycle greed, not at all tempted by 5% yields at the long-end(BofA private client exposure to UST bonds >10-year duration tiny 4% - Chart 2). Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and thefinancialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14.12983719 Timestamp: 11 June 2026 11:32PM EDT Weekly Flows: $31.5bn to stocks, $20.8bn to bonds, $0.7 from crypto, $2.3bn fromgold, $2.5bn from cash. Flows to Know: •Crypto: $0.7bn outflow, past 5 weeks $6.6bn outflows…record (Chart 9),•Gold: $2.3bn outflow, 4thweek of outflows (Chart 10),•IG bonds: $11.8bn inflow, 10thweek of inflows,•US equities: $17.4bn inflow, 11thweek of inflows…longest streak since Dec'25,•EM equities: $4.5bn inflow, 1stinflow in 9 weeks (Chart 11),•Korea equities: $5.9bn inflow, biggest inflow since Mar'26,•Tech: $12.3bn inflow, biggest weekly inflow ever (incl $3.0bn to Direxion DailySemiconductor Bull 3x and $2.9bn to iShares Semiconductor ETF–Chart 12). BofA Private Clients: $4.5tn AUM…65.5% stocks, 17.4% bonds, 9.8% cash; biggestoutflow from equities in 8 weeks but note GWIM equity ETF share count up 0.3% pastweek and 4.9% YTD, shows underlying equity buying; in ETFs past 4 weeks, privateclients buying materials, MLP, TIPS and selling Japan, staples, utilities. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator1: rises to 8.8 from 8.7 as strong tech equity inflowspartially offset by HY and EM bond outflows and weaker global stock index breadth; 4thweek of“sell signal”triggered May'26; 17 "sell signals" since '02, average loss for globalstocks over 2-3 months is 2-3%, hit ratio of ~60%, max drawdowns of 15-20% (seeBofA Bull & Bear Indicator). 1994 analog: US headline CPI (avg 0.5% past 6 months) heading above 5% by midterms(Chart 6 - core CPI on course for 3.0-3.5%); past 100 years when CPI crossed above 4%,SPX averaged -4% next 3 months, -7% next 6 months; US CPI (4.2%) almost higher thanunemployment rate (4.3%), rare and tends to coincide with years of Fed hikes (e.g., '66,'73, '90, '00, '08, '21–Chart 7), none of which remembered fondly on Wall St; marketanalogs galore, but don’t forget 1994 analog which has parallels with 2026...extendedFed easing and jobless recovery in early '90s ended with blowout payrolls in Q1’94forcing big hikes from behind-the-curve Fed, stocks stumbled into multi-month tradingrange until bond yields stopped rising after deleveraging Mexico peso crisis & OrangeCounty bankruptcy events in Dec’94 (Chart 8)