美国食品及餐饮行业：牛肉产业深度解析——行业增长动能能否持续加码？

U.S. Food and Restaurants: Beef primer - will there ever be more Beef prices have been on the rise, inflating over +10% YTD and over +20% since the startof 2025. Accordingly, we are publishing this primer to walk through the cattle and beefsupply chain, the state of the herd, and changes in consumer demand. We then outline thedrivers that affect live cattle and beef prices. Lastly, we lay out our medium-term forecasts as Alexia Howard+1 917 344 8453alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com Danilo Gargiulo+1 917 344 8475danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com As the domestic cattle herd remains historically small and rebuilding would takea few years,beef prices will likely remain inflated for the medium-term.Alleviatingtheimport tariffsin the near term would help, but consensus seems to be that this won’toffset the depleted herd size and slow rebuild. The other main headwinds affecting thespeed of the herd rebuild are theongoing drought conditions(which remain challenged), Cinnie Lin+1 917 344 8567cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com So far,demand elasticity for beef has held (relatively) strong,so high beef priceshaven’t yet significantly eroded demand, but sustained (or intensified) inflation couldeventually cause elasticity to break down and reduce consumer demand, which couldthen reduce beef prices for consumer and reduce live cattle prices for processors. In thelast year,beef processors have begun to close processing facilities to right-size Continued beef price inflation is negative for beef processors because they areprice takers;the processors have to buy live cattle on the open market and pricing powerfor end consumers is limited. For the rest of the packaged food companies, sustained beefinflation will be a headwind because beef prices are an input cost. Within the U.S. Foodcoverage, roughly40% of Tyson’s sales are from beef(although beef margins have been Beef inflation has negative impact on restaurant margins,already compressed byelusive traffic and low sales leverage. Companies with higher beef exposure and lessdiversified menus, like the pureplay steakhouses, may face more prolonged challenges ifbeef prices were to remain elevated - and we expect greater coverage/hedging to partiallymitigate the risk. Food distributors are less affected as they operate under a cost-plus That said, from a demand standpoint, we note that comparable sales rise in conjunctionwith retail beef prices for steakhouses likeLongHorn and Texas Roadhouse,asconsumers substitute eating at home with grilled for perfection steaks when retail prices BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate MDLZ, MKC, and SJM Outperform. We rate BRBR, HSY, LW, SMPL, and TSN Market-Perform. We rate CAG, CPB, GIS,and KHC Underperform. We rate CMG, CAVA, SBUX, DRI, QSR, WING, PFGC, and USFD Outperform. We rate MCD, DPZ, WEN, YUM, and SYY Market-Perform. Table Of Contents Brief History............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3The Domestic Supply Chain................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4The State of the Herd.............................................................................................................................................................................................................5Heifer Slaughter Rates and Abridged Cattle Biology.......................................................................................................................................... 5Live Cattle and Beef Prices...........................................................................................................................................................................................6Beef vs Dairy Herds......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9Import Dynamics, Tariffs, and Screwworms.........................................................................................................................................................10Beef Demand, Elasticity, and Substitution in Food at Home................................................................................................................................. 16Price Drivers............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18Drought Conditions........................................................................................................................................................................