业绩预告上调，存在超预期利好

Date10 June 2026 ReutersDOW.N BloombergDOW US Valuation & Risks Preannounced Upside Surprise David BegleiterResearch Analyst Strong global polyethylene demanddrivesincreased guidance At a competitor conference on Tuesday,June 9,Dow announcedthat Q2 EBITDAwould be roughly ~$2.2B, above itspriorQ2EBITDA guidance of~$2Bandconsensus of ~$2.1B.The increase in guidance is driven byresilientglobalpolyethylene (PE) demandandbetter-than-expected pricing,with a 30 c/lbprice Emily FuscoResearch Associate Key changes In Industrial, Intermediates & Infrastructure(II&I),constructive supply/demanddynamics, with tightness inMDI andpolyols (PO)due toindustry outagesis Price target (USD)4036-10% Toreflect stronger-than-expected pricing momentum in polyethylene andtightenedsupply dynamics in II&I, we are raising our Q2 EBITDA estimateby$200MM to $2.25B, up from $703MM in the prior-year period (cons: $2.15B). As Wenote there ispotentialupside to the raised guidance as itassumes a flat Junesettlement for US polyethylene contract prices.This is versus a 20 c/lb priceincrease Dow has announced for June.Dow is highly leveraged to polyethylenepriceswith a $0.01 c/lb changein US polyethylene prices impacting monthly While we believe there remains upside to Dow’s earnings in’26, we maintain ourHold asi) we believe it will be difficult for the shares to outperform in theimmediate aftermathofanend to the Middle East conflict which would likelyinclude a step down in oil prices,ii) there remains significant excess global Valuation We arelowering our price target by $4 to $36 reflecting market multiplecompression.Our price target is based on Dow trading at5.8x‘27EEBITDAin12 months, a0.5x expansion to its current year multiple reflecting a higher level Risks Key downside risks:i) a narrowing of the oil-to-gas ratio, which could erode theUS ethylene cost advantage versus European and Asia producers, ii) higherfeedstockethaneprices, iii) lower China polyethylene imports, iv) slower globalgrowth and v) a stronger US dollar. Key upside risks: i) a less-severe-than- Source:Deutsche Bank estimates; Company information Appendix 1 Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators 2-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments 8-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking 14-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company within the past year for non- 15-This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year during which time it received Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators 2-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments 24-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) is or has been over the previous 12 months party to an agreement with thecompany relating to the provision of services set out in Sections A and B of Annex I of Directive 2014/65/EU, or has For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsite athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific Company Rating and Dispersion Key The above table provides a snapshot of Deutsche Bank's company research rating distribution across our coveredcompanies. We also present the percentage of companies where Deutsche Bank has provided Investment Banking Note-percentages are rounded so may not total 100%. Covered: The overall rating distribution across all companies under coverage with a rating. w/Banking relation: Percentage of companies under coverage with a rating within each of the "buy", "hold" and "sell" w/MiFID services: Percentage of companies under coverage with a rating within each of the "buy", "hold" and "sell" Buy/Hold/Sell Percentages: These percentages reflect the proportion of companies within each category that havebeen assigned the corresponding rating, based on our 12-month view of Total Shareholder Return (TSR). Rating definitions: Buy: Based on a current 12-month view of TSR, we recommend that investors buy the stock. Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of TSR, we recommend that investors sell the stock. Hold: We take a neutral view on