Smucker's 2026年第四季度业绩及FY27展望：去杠杆化与美国食品行业其他公司形成鲜明对比

U.S. Food cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com Outperform Price Target SJM 137.00 USD(134.00OLD) Smucker's 4Q:26 - Outlook for FY27 and de-levering are a sharpcontrast to other US Food names Smucker’s 4Q26 results were markedly better than we have seen from otherpackaged food companies of late:Organic sales growth of +6% (price up +10% withvolumes down +4%) shows better elasticity than peers. Adjusted EPS growth of +20% is avery far cry from the -32% we saw from Campbell’s just yesterday, and this is before coffee Close Date9 Jun 2026SJM Close Price (USD)112.39Price Target (USD)137.00Upside/(Downside)22%52-Week Range119.39/88.25SPX7,386.65FYEAprDiv Yield3.9%Market Cap (USD) (M)11,988EV (USD) (M)18,893 We are particularly encouraged by Uncrustables’ reacceleration to 8% growth thisquarter,and this is before the marketing campaign to inform consumers that the sandwichescan now be kept in the fridge for up to 5 days (which is expected to start over the summer). Sweet Baked Snacks saw profit surge by 45% this quarteras the company pulled backsharply on promotional activity, reduced marketing spending, and took a list price increaseon certain products. We continue to wonder whether this business will eventually be sold, Perhaps the only cautionary note was that organic sales are expected to decline by-3% to -4% in FY27 due to the expected high-single-digit declines in coffee pricesin Investment Implications We rate SJM Outperform and raise our price target from $134 to $137 based on maintainingour forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.0x and raising our 12 - 24 month EBITDA estimatefrom $2,146m to $2,162m. DETAILS … (continued) given the pass-through nature of this single-ingredient category and should also pair with a surge in marginsand profit growth in the segment (see our deeper dives on the retail coffee business for further detail: Smucker's: Still our toppick, but guidance for FY27 likely to be only modestly above long term algorithm and Smucker's: The best part of waking up ... Since last quarter, leverage has fallen from 4.1x net debt to EBITDA to 3.8x, and management now expects to hitits goal of 3.0x by year-end.The company also noted that stronger than expected cash generation enabled the company toexceed its debt paydown goals this year. We suspect that this is what has driven the positive stock move today, as investors start As we look out to FY27, management is currently expecting a mid-single-digit decline in COGS due to coffee inputcost deflation and tariff elimination:without coffee, the company would expect low-single-digit COGS growth this year due All in, Smucker’s seems well positioned to buck the negative trends we are seeing in other packages for names.Webelieve there could be further room for positive revisions and multiple expansion later in the year based on an acceleration in Quarterly beat driven by margins.Revenues of $2,268.1m were 0.5% above consensus estimates, with organic sales growthof +6% YoY (price +10% and volume/mix -4%), above consensus of 5.6%. This was a sequential slowdown from the +8% OSGseen last quarter, where price was up by +10% and volume/mix down by -2%. The adjusted gross margin of 36.8% was -23bpbelow consensus and down -71bp YoY—an improvement from the -367bp YoY seen last quarter. Adjusted EBIT of $482.1m FY27 guidance came in ahead of consensus.Net sales are expected to decline -4% to -3% (vs current consensus of+0.75%), driven by pricing declines in retail coffee. FY27 adj. gross margin is expected to come in at 38% (vs current consensusof 36%) and SD&A expenses are expected to increase 5% (vs current consensus of 4.5%). EPS for the full year is expected to EXHIBIT 1:Green coffee costs have moderated significantly since 2025 peaks, and Smucker’s managementannounced corresponding retail coffee price decreases expected to begin in 2Q27 APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION