IP玩具月度追踪（2026年5月）

China (PRC) | China Consumer IP Toys Monthly Tracker - May Pop Mart’s share price has been resilient since its 1Q26 earnings release on13 May. While Mr. Duan Yongping’s purchase of 81m shares (c.6% stake)in late May boosted market confidence, we do not see any material changein fundamentals. Key catalysts ahead include: (1) the launch of Labubu 4.0,and (2) World Cup-related promotions, which could further drive overseasmomentum. China •Second-hand prices:Labubu plush second-hand prices stabilized MoM. Of the top 30most wanted products on the second-hand exchange platforms, we see more diversity:three of them are non-Pop Mart products, while the Pop Mart x aespa collaborationremains most wanted.• Ecommerce sales:Meritco has not released May data yet; Apr data shows Pop Mart'sGMV on ecommerce platforms was up 70% YoY and up 25% MoM. Meanwhile, Bloks'ecommerce sales were up 16% you, and Miniso's was up 11% YoY in Apr. Overseas •Socialmedia interactions:Amid the ongoing normalization trend,Pop Mart'sengagement on TikTok picked up in May for its global and Thailand accounts, which wereup 49% and 67% MoM, respectively.•Social media followers:In May, Pop Mart added 13k new Instagram followers across itsGlobal, Thailand, US, and UK accounts combined (vs. +19k in Apr; Figures 19-20).•Website traffic & app active users:Pop Mart app's active users declined in May, bothglobally and in the US. Global and regional Google Search Trends for Pop Mart continuedto trend downward (Figures 21-24). New Product Launches/events •Pop Mart:Pop Mart’s 1Q26 results were broadly in line with market expectations, whilethe post-earnings call highlighted possible margin pressure in 2026 (refer to our report).Despite this, the share price was resilient, supported by Duan Yongping’s purchase of 81mshares, representing c.6% of total shares outstanding, between 25–28 May, making hima substantial shareholder of the company (Figure 3).• On the product front, Pop Mart stepped up global marketing initiatives throughWorld Cup-related promotions,including an appearance in the music video of the official FIFA WorldCup 2026 song“Goals”,and a collaboration with Coca-Cola to launch Labubu-brandedcans in China.• Bloks:Bloks launched 13 new series in May (vs. 12 in Apr and 21 in 1Q26). The newreleases feature a more diversified IP portfolio, with a particular focus onStar Wars, whilethe company continued to emphasize assembly vehicle products. Looking ahead, Bloks isexpected to launch collaborative products tied toToy Story 5ahead of the movie’s releasein late June. [Continued inside.] Jingjue Pei * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1224 | jingjue.pei@jefferies.com Anne Ling * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8783 | aling@jefferies.com Ecommerce sales trackers May data will be available after 15 June. .Source: Meritco, Jefferies Source: Meritco, Jefferies Second-hand price trackers Interaction trackers Source: Listen First, Jefferies Source: Listen First, Jefferies Source: SimilarWeb, Jefferies Research .Source: Google trends, Jefferies .Source: Google trends, Jefferies .Source: Google trends, Jefferies Source: Google trends, Jefferies Source: Google trends, Jefferies Other trackers Share performance Company Valuation/Risks Bandai Namco Holdings Inc. We forecast sales from main IP by analyzing the product cycle in each avenue (domestic toys, anime slates, and gaming). We project Toys &Hobby OP to be driven by anime slates of 1P/3P IP developed by internal and external studios. We expect Gaming OP to grow, driven by high-margin repeat title sales. Applying a 26.5x P/E to our revised FY3/27 EPS estimate of ¥241 yields PT of ¥6,390 (C. 10% premium to gaming Avg).Risks include (1) saturation and intensified competition in Japan mobile games; (2) slowdown in the growth of Gunpla fan base; (3) inability of thepipeline titles to drive top-line growth or to foster the repeat title sales in the following year; (4) material cost hike pressurizes margins; (5) impactof global recession on overseas demand; and (6) slow OP recovery of Real Entertainment (Amusement). Bloks Group Ltd Our primary valuation methodology is DCF, employing a WACC of 9.5%, including COE of 9.5%, beta of 1, and terminal growth rate of 1% (TGR isin line with our range of 0-3% set for China consumer stocks). Key risks include fashion risk and IP concentration, channel inventory, IP renewals,and competition from other brands. MINISO Group Holding Limited Our primary valuation methodology is DCF, employing a WACC of 15.1%, beta of 1.5, and terminal growth rate of 1.0% (TGR is in line with ourrange of 0-3% set for China consumer stocks). Downside risks include lower-than-expected performance in overseas expansion, store opening vs cannibalization, inability to sustain popularityof products, YH's performance dragging Miniso's resources, and Miniso continuing to branch out to less favorable/premature investments. Pop Mart International Group Limited Our primary valuation method