全球运动服饰中国行业现状

Global Sportswear: State of the sector in China The China Sportswear market has stabilized in the past year after a lot of post Covid volatility,but the competitive landscape is still in flux, with NKE losing share to Western and Chinesecompetitors, and Offline losing to more promotional Online sales. We look across retailerdata, 3p platform data, and our own channel checks in the region to frame up the currentstate of the sector and competitive landscape, and implications for our Global Sportswearbrands coverage. Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Jessica Tian+1 917 344 8413jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com After a few tumultuous years, China Sportswear is now stabilized and growingslightly above GDP, with both YTD trends and qualitative channel checks pointing to MSD% sector growth for 2026. This year started out well with a strong Lunar New Year andelevated promotions online driving traffic and spend and, though the trend has moderatedin Q2, retailers still expect growth just above GDP for the year. More discount-seekingconsumer behavior is diluting the quality of that growth, as Online (the more promotionalchannel) gains share vs. Offline - this tends to be cyclical as macro shifts and consumersentiment evolves. Jed Hodulik+1 917 344 8594jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com Competitive landscape remains in flux, as Nike’s correction continues.Nike’sinventory levels are healthier, and marketplace sell-out is modestly declining (LSD-MSDdecline) across both Online and Offline, with strong growth from Running almost offsettingongoing declines in Lifestyle. However, sell-in remains negative as the company resetsits assortment and makes bigger structural changes to the China org (e.g. more localizeddesign like Adidas). Meanwhile, domestic competitors and other Western brands are growing andgaining share. Domestic leaders (Anta,Li Ning,Xtep) are growing at a modest pace,slightly ahead of the sector.Adidasis growing double digits, both offline and online, off alow base, as new products are resonating and the localized operating model is working.Smaller, premium Western brands (On,Arcteryx,Salomon) are all continuing to grow atstrong double digits off low bases, with some slowdown inHokaandLululemon(thoughboth still gaining share). Investment implications: The competitive landscape is fragmenting across multiplemarket leaders, with Anta remaining in the lead while Nike loses share and other Westernbrands take stronger share positions. We expect this to be a structurally more competitivemarket medium-term, more like the US, which means structurally lower margins and morecyclicality between individual brands and companies. In our coverage,AdidasandOnhavethe strongest runway mid-term, withNikestill a few quarters from growth,Lululemonperhaps losing its luster, andHokalooking for new growth categories. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Adidas, Nike, and On Outperform and Deckers and Lululemon Market-Perform. DETAILS CONTEXT: CHINA SPORTSWEAR SECTOR IN THE LAST FEW YEARS China has been the most tumultuous of the major markets for Sportswear over the last six years. Since 2019, externalcatalysts such as the cotton boycotts, COVID lockdowns and broader economic pressure have meaningfully disrupted marketgrowth. As a result, the sector has experienced significant volatility and fragmentation in recent years, slowing down from ~13%CAGR from 2014-2019 to ~5% CAGR from 2019-2025. Why has growth slowed?From 2019 to 2025 sportswear growth slowed vs 2014-2019 driven by a decline in appareland footwear spending, driven by big declines in 2020 and 2022 due to COVID lockdowns, with 2023-25 coming back intoslight growth. Despite the slowdown, sportswear continued to grow, effectively at the rate of GDP per capita, due to greaterpenetration of the closet and continued increase of Sportswear as a percent of apparel and footwear (Exhibit 2) as trendsof health and wellness, casualization and premiumization continued. (More detail here: The Long View: Global Sportswear -Evolution of the sector over the next decade.) The competitive landscape has also fragmented, as leading Western brands have steadily lost share to domesticbrands since even before COVID (Exhibit 3). Competitive dynamics between Western and Chinese brands have rapidlychanged the fates of individual brands. Starting around 2017-18, international brands began losing share to domestic brands.The share gains were led by Anta (not covered) which went from HSD% share pre-covid to ~20% market share today (Exhibit4). Meanwhile, Nike and Adidas lost over 10 ppts of share each, both to leading domestic brands and high-growth emerginginternational brands (e.g. On, Hoka, Asics). As a result, the market today is far more fragmented, with the top 4 brands owning54% of Sportswear market share (2025) vs. 64% at peak (2020). Note: Anta, Li Ning, Xtep, 361 Degrees and Amer Sports are not covered. China Sportswear: Share of Top 20 Brand