MediaTek 5月月度销售符合预期，TPU与合作项目驱动增长

Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 4,380.00 TWD 2454.TT MediaTek: May monthly sales tracks in line This afternoon MediaTek reported May sales at NT$47B, up 1% MoM and 5% YoY. Combinedrevenue in April and May was NT$94B, or 65% of MediaTek's 2Q26 guidance midpoint &in the middle of the 62-67% range seen in the past ten years. If June were to follow theseasonality, 2Q26 revenue would come 1.2% above consensus & 1.6% above the guidancemidpoint (Exhibit 1). As actual FX was likely 1.2pt more favorable than the assumptionembedded in the guidance, the revenue would have been tracking in line if we remove the FXtailwind. MediaTek’s stock price has surged c. 65% in May thanks to its upward revision to 2026 ASICguidance and better outlook in 2027 & beyond too. With more capacity from TSMC, betterdemand visibility, and lower execution risk, we not long ago revised up the TPU revenueprojection to US$2B, 15B, & 22B in 2026-28, respectively, representing c. 10%, 40%,and 50% share in Google’s TPU purchase, respectively (report, model). Our recent channelchecks, together with Google’s upsized capital raise of US$85B & Broadcom’s reluctance infurther guidance raise could suggest some an upside risk to our 2028 forecast, in our view.Beyond TPU, MediaTek is also working with NVIDIA on PC CPU, and with Microsoft on theactive optical cable (AOC) which replaces laser with MicroLED as light source. We believethese collaborations strengthen MediaTek’s positioning in data center market. On the other hand, the smartphone business remains challenged. Our China smartphonetracker (link) shows the pressure from elevated memory price is spreading from low-endsegment to the mid-end segment. Meanwhile, the cost pass-through to consumers vialike-for-like tag price increases was poorly accepted, evidenced by high inventory levels ofAndroid OEMs. That said, we believe strong contribution from TPU is more than enough tooffset smartphone weakness. Overall, we reiterate our positive stance on the name. ReiterateOutperform. EXHIBIT 1:MediaTek April + May sales amounted toNT$94B. Should June follow seasonality, MediaTek2Q26 revenue would be slightly above consensus andguidance midpoint, likely thanks to FX tailwinds. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate MediaTekOutperform. Our 1-year price target isNT$4,380.00 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY MediaTek Inc We set a NT$4,380 1-year price target using a P/E multiple of 22x against our forward Q5-Q8 EPS estimate of NT$199. RISKS MediaTek Inc There are a number of downside risks to our MediaTek price target: (1) Stronger competitive pressure from Qualcomm in 5G market(2) Slower 5G adoption increase, especially in China (3) Weaker smartphone demand globally (4) Slower diversification beyondsmartphone (5) Downcycle in the broad semiconductor market RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: •Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15