世界展望：1999遇见1990

1June2026 1999 meets 1990 GlobalHead of Macroand Thematic Research November of being"anything but dull". The world economy grapples with acomplex interplay of persistent Al-drivenoptimism andthe disruptive forceoftheMiddleEast conflict,makingit feel like1999meets1990,but hopefullynot1973. +44-20-754-72943David Folkerts-Landau, Ph.D. Group Chief Economist&Global Head ofResearch+44-20-754-55502 evolvingwinners and losers.TheMiddle Eastconflict adds more uncertaintytotheoutlook. The baseline expectation is that a Us-lran deal is reached during June,allowing Hormuz shipping to resume and Brent crude to fall to $86/bbl in Q4 and$80/bblin2027.AdealalreadyinthecomingdayswouldloweroilpricessomewhatmorerapidlyinQ3butotherwisehavelimitedmacroimpactrelativetoourbaseline.Ontheotherhand,prolonged Hormuz closurecould push Brenttowards $150/bbl,significantlyimpactingglobal growth andpushing Europe intorecession TheenergyshockhastrimmedglobalGDPgrowthfor2026slightlysinceNovemberto3.0%, recoveringto3.2%in2027.GlobalCPlis revised sharplyhigherto3.8% in2026, boosting nominal GDPand leadingtoanupwardturn intheglobal centralbankcycle.TheUSeconomyisresilient,helpedbyfiscaltailwinds,accommodativefinancial conditions, and Al investment despite the oil impact on consumerspending.Inflation remains stubbornlyhigh,andthe drivers aremore worrying.Wesee the Fed on hold indefinitely, with increasing risk of hikes. Asanenergyimporter,euroareaGDPgrowthhasbeencutsharplysinceNovember,leaving the zone on the verge of technical recession. HicP inflation is sharplyrevised upwards,and we see5Obpof ECBhikes.Pre-conflictmomentummeansonly a slight downgrade to UK GDP, with headwinds ahead and the BoE on hold. In Asia,fortunes diverge.Strong trade ishelping limit the energy hitto China's GDPgrowth.India's growth is expected to moderate due to the oil shock andmonsoonissues. Japan's outlook is significantlyaltered by higher oil prices,withlower GDPgrowth, substantially higher CPland a more aggressive BoJ tightening cycle. Infinancialmarkets,weexpectamildsell-off inUsTreasuryand Europeanbonds.Thedollarisprojectedtodepreciategradually.EquitymarketsremainconstructivewiththeS&P500targeting8000.Globalcreditspreadsshowresilience,particularlyintheUs,whileEuro-creditfacesmoreacuteconcernsdueto Europe'seconomicsensitivityandECBtightening.EMassetclassesshowresiliencewithgeographicaldispersion,favoringratesinLatAmandCEEMEA. World Outlook Overview..GeopoliticsUnited StatesEuro Area..15Germany.19United Kingdom..22Japan...25China....28India.......30Rates...Credit....Emerging Markets..Oil and Gas.... World Outlook 2026continuestodeliveronourpromisefromthelastWorldOutlook (WO)backin November of being"anything but dull."The world economy grapples withacomplex interplay of persistent Al-driven optimism and the disruptive force of theMiddle East conflict, making it feel like 1999meets1990, but hopefullynot 1973. transformativefortheglobe,with an extreme differential between winners andlosers.DB'sS&P500targetof8,000,setbackinourNovemberedition,nowcompaniesand countries arelikelytoremainhighlysensitivetoshifts insentimentaround Al's impact, with large swings likely in both directions. It is worthremembering that, before the Iran war, the 2026 narrative had already swungsharplytowards concerns over imminent Al driven disruption,job losses anddisinflation. Only a few months on and the focus has shifted to the inflationaryeffects of the Al investment boom.For its beneficiaries (US,North Asia)thisinvestmentboomhashelpedbufferthe impactoftheenergyshock.Oncethewarends, the debate around how Al will reshape the world will intensify again, withmarkets aggressively trading on narratives where some will get close to beingrealised and others totally removed from reality. So, expect the tech fever, and itsimplications,tointensify. Figure2:DBGDPgrowthforecasts Back to the war, while uncertainty out of the Middle East continues to cloud theglobaloutlook, our baseline is thatby the end of Junethe US and Iran reach a dealthatallowsshippingviatheStraitofHormuztoresume.Whileweshouldstillbeprepared for escalation risks, US and Iranian positions appear to be graduallyconvergingtowardsaframeworkagreement.Atthe sametime,the currentstatusquo is likelyto become unsustainable overtime,not least as existing flexibility in World Outlook Amid lingeringuncertainty,our oil forecast assumes a re-opening of Hormuz laterin June.The oil market has shown substantialflexibility inadjustingtothe Iran war,butthecontinueddisruption has ledus to raise our Brent oil priceforecastto USD109/bbl inQ2.Assuming aUS-lranMOUandgradualnormalization,weexpectapost-conflict surplusof 4mmb/d, leading toprices reaching USD 86/bbl inQ4 andUSD80/bbl in2027 buthavelimited impactrelativetoourbroadermacrobaseline.Conversely,amoreextreme downside scenario that sees the Strait of Hormuz largely closed throughQ3wouldpushBrentcrudecloserto$150/bblinQ3,turningthedragonUSgrowthfrom marginal to material and pushing