中国AI与绿色技术支撑出口强劲，5月出口加速超预期

AI and green-tech keep exportsstrong Exports accelerated further in May, exceeding expectationsamid a global manufacturing upswing. AI-related and green-tech goods remained key drivers, supported by the AIinvestment boom and energy shock-driven demand forrenewables. Imports wereliftedby higher commodity andelectronics prices. Ying Zhang+852 2903 2652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Yingke Zhou+852 2903 2653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Jian Chang+852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong •May: 19.4% y/y for exports, and 27.4% y/y for imports (both in USD terms)•Bloomberg consensus (Barclays): 15% y/y (14%) for exports, and 26% y/y (25%) forimports•April: 14.1% y/y for exports, and 25.3% y/y for imports (both in USD terms) China's export growth accelerated further, rising 19.4% y/y in May following a 14.1% increase inApril, exceeding both the market and our expectations ( Bloomberg: 15%, Barclays: 14%).Breakdown data suggest stronger shipments to the US and across the region (ASEAN, Korea,Japan and Taiwan), while shipments to the EU and UKsoftened.The robust performance cameagainst the backdrop of 1) a continued uptick in global manufacturing activity, evidenced by theglobal manufacturing PMI holding at a four-year high of 52.6 in May despite the prolongedenergy shock, and 2) broad-based strength across major manufacturing exporters, ranging fromlow-to-mid product exports from Vietnam (May: 18% y/y), to high-end oriented product exportsfrom Korea (May: 53.2%), to the full-supply-chain exports from China (May: 19.4%). Demand for high-tech products, particularly AI-related and green-tech goods, remained a keydriver, helping to alleviate concerns over the impact of the Middle East energy shock on externaldemand. The ongoing global AI capex cycle continues to underpin demand for China's AI-related exports, given the country is a key supplier of AI manufactured components. High-techexports accounted for 29.8% of total export value in May, growing 51% y/y (April: 39%), withnotable acceleration in semiconductors (+111%) and automatic data processing equipment andparts (+66%). At the same time, the energy shock is supporting demand for renewable products,while persistent geopolitical tensions could further accelerate the global green transition, anarea where China remains well positioned as a leading low-cost, high-quality supplier. Year-to-date data show sustained double-digit growth in EVs, lithium batteries, wind turbines, and solarcells. Details of May export data •By destination:Trade flows between the US and China are showing signs of continuednormalization, with shipments to the US surging 35.4% y/y (April: 11.3%) partly helped by alow base a year earlier following the Liberation Daytariffs.On a sequential basis, exports to the US rose by 6.2% m/m-better than the 2022–24 average of around 5.6% (excludingtariff-distorteddynamics in 2025)-pointing to recovery in shipment momentum. It contributed3.2pp to headline export growth, well above the 1.2pp recorded in April. Meanwhile, regionalexports to ASEAN (May: 24.3%, April: 15.2%) and to Japan, Korea and Taiwan (May: 27.5%,April: 16.8%) strengthened further. In contrast, export growth to the EU (May: 7.6%, April:13.4%) and the UK (May: 1.7%, April: 9.6%) weakened. Moreover, shipments to Africacontinued to expand at double-digit pace (May: 18.6%, April: 17.3%), while exports to LatAmsoftened. •By product:Most major export categories accelerated in May. Semiconductor exports valuemore than doubled from a year earlier, up 110.9% y/y following an already strong 99.6%increase in the previous month. Auto exports remained resilient, rising 39% y/y, althoughsofteningfrom the 44% increase in April. Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew27.4% y/y, up from 20.3% previously, while home appliance exports continued to expand.Exports of furniture, general equipment and machinery also reversed to pick up in May. May headline imports posted a strong growth due to priceeffects Imports have continued to exceed expectations this year. Against the backdrop of surgingenergy and semiconductor related prices, China's import value posted a solid growth of 27.4%y/y in May, following a 25.3% increase in April, supported by robust imports of mechanical andelectrical products (May: 38.2%, April: 33.5%) and commodities (May: 16.4%, April: 13.3%). Incontrast, imports of agricultural productssoftened,while auto imports remained weak, falling25% y/yaftera 34% decline previously. On a volume basis, imports of energy-related products showed mixed developments. Crude oilimports fell at a faster pace of 29% y/y, following a 20% decline in April. Imports of coalcontinued to decline, but the pace moderated to -7.7% versus -12.5% previously. In contrast,natural gas imports stabilizedaftertwo consecutive months of double-digit declines (May: 0%; April: -12.9%). Market reports suggest a pickup in LNG purchases since mid-April