美联储政策立场：对中国的影响

Fed Policy Stance: Implications for China 2026-27GrowthOutlook:CapexOverConsumption ...ledbyAl-relatedspending Consumption: Energy Headwind Neutralizes Fiscal Stimulus would morethanoffsettheaveragetaxrefundincrease LaborMarket:StrongPayrolls,NoSignOfAl&EnergyDrag(Yet? concernsaboutdownsideriskstothelabormarket Us EconomyWilltheUnemploymentRateComeDown? CPl:CoreDecelerates,HeadlineRemainsHigh us EconomyFedPolicyOutlook Us EconomyTreasuriestoCheapenFirst,thenOutperformForwardsasOilTailsFade weightedbaseline ModestAppreciation in RMB Basket, USDCNY Remains AUSDStory China Tightens Outbound Investment Controls to Regulate Flows... RMBdepreciationexpectationshaveeasedactually ...Not toShut DownOverseas Investment Channels offshoresecuritiesexposure.. Implications:Near-termSupporttoRMB Capital-AccountOpeningandRMBInternationalization:AManaged SymbiosisMutuallyReinforcing.SelectivelyOpened.StrategicallyBalanced Information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by one or more of the following, which accept responsibilityforits contents: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited, and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte (Registration number199206298Z)and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore)Securities Pte Ltd (Registrationnumber200008434H),regulated bythe Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibilityforits contents and should be contacted with respectto any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research), and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 OO3 734 576, holder ofAustralian financial services License No. 233742), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 OO9 145 555, holder of Australian financial services license No. 24O813, and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited havingCorporate ldentification No (CIN) U2299OMH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH0OO0O1105), Stock Broker (SEBI Stock Broker RegistratiorNo.INZ000244438), Merchant Banker(SEBIRegistration No. INM000011203),and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited(SEBI Registration No.IN-DP-NSDL-567-202) havingregistered office at Altimus, Level39 &40,PandurangBudhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai 4O0O18, India; Telephone no. +91-22-6118100O; Compliance Officer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, TeL No.: +91-22-61810OO or Email: tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.:+91-22-61181OOO or Email:msic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts the responsibilityfor its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arisingfrom, orin connection with, Morgan Stanley Research and their affiliates (collectively.Morgan Stanley'). Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited (MSICPL) may use Al tools in providing research services. All recommendations contained herein are made by the duly qualified research analysts;Forimportant disclosures,stockprice charts andequityrating historiesregarding companiesthat are the subject of thisreport,please seethe Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at www.morganstanley.com/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch,or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY, 10O36 USA. For valuation methodology and risks associated with any recommendation,rating or price target referenced in this research report,please contact the Client Support Team as follows: US/Canada +1800 303-2495; Hong Kong +852 2848-5999; Latin America +1718754-5444(U.S.);London+44(0)20-7425-8169;Singapore +65 6834-6860;Sydney+61(0)2-9770-1505;Tokyo+81(0)3-6836-9000.Alternativelyyoumaycontactyourinvestment representative orMorgan Stanley Research at 1585Broadway,(Attention:Research Management), New York, NY 10036 USAGlobalResearchConflictManagementPolicy Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/confictpolicies. A Portuguese version of the policy can be found at www.morgan stanley.com.br ImportantDisclosuresMorgan Stanley is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice within the meaning of Section 975 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Morgan Stanley Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Morgan Stanley Research has been prepared without regard to the circumstances and objectives of those who receive it. Morgan Stanley recommends that investorsindependently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of an investmen