远景展望：支付——现金数字化的增长空间是否仍然存在？

The Long View: Payments - Does Cash Digitization Runway StillExist? We publish the 12thannual edition of our global payments forecast model. A lot has changedin the last 10+ years - U.S. is now highly penetrated by cards (72% vs. 58% ten years ago),local payment methods have gained traction (e.g., in Asia where card volume growth hassomewhat stalled), domestic schemes have lost share (e.g., in Europe), other alternative waysto pay (e.g., A2A) have generated noise but have remained contained, and stablecoins arefinding some utility in markets where dollars are desirable. Last year was the first time whenwe brought our forecasts down (see link) - largely because of market maturing in the U.S.and regional dynamics in Asia. Against that dynamic backdrop, our global payments forecastmodel remains the under-pinning of our investment view on the sector and V/MA in particular- even as value-added services capture a growing share of revenue. Harshita Rawat, CFA+1 917 344 8485harshita.rawat@bernsteinsg.com Simran Ratani+1 917 344 8329simran.ratani@bernsteinsg.com Viola Chen+1 917 344 8614viola.chen@bernsteinsg.com We forecast 8% cc (~7-8% nominal) card volume growth from 2025-30E(below2022-25 CAGR of 9% cc), driven by 5-6% PCE growth and 2-3% card penetration-driven growth (penetration growing to 71%, up from 64% in 2025). The exit growth ratein 2030 in our model is 7%.We forecast deceleration vs. history (~8% cc vs. 9% cchistorically)due to already high penetration in the U.S. (where we now forecast ~5-6%card volume growth CAGR vs. ~6% CAGR between 2022-25), slowdown in Asia (due tolocal market nuances). Europe remains an attractive market for cards: we forecast 11% ccvolume growth driven by continental Europe (e.g., Germany, Italy, Spain) vs. 16% historically.We are monitoringoptionalitydriven by possible inflection in eCommerce from Agenticcommerce and autonomous agent transactions as a growth driver for card payments butnote that it's simply too early to bake anything into our numbers. We will closely monitor howcards’ commercial models to address historically tougher to address categories such asrent and healthcare. We forecast a stronger growth at 9% in the number of transactions globallybetween 2025-30E (10% 2022-25).Card penetration is lower when assessed as a %of number of transactions(as opposed to transaction value). V/MA derive >1/3rd of theirgross revenue from # of transactions, which tend to grow faster than $ volumes. Cross-border is at an interesting point, and we will address that in a separate note. Card volumes only tell part of the story.We see a runway in tokens, VAS penetration andoptionality in new flows(more details in a separate note),which along with 9% growthin transactions can drive DD% revenue growthdespite card volume growth of 8%. Forreference, even in high card penetration markets, networks have historically demonstratedan ability to grow revenues at double digits. Domestic schemes (~$4T of volumes globally)are an underappreciated opportunity e.g., Visa gained 5-6ppt share in Continental Europevs Girocard / CB card in Germany/France in 2024. Alternative ways-to-pay drive HSD-LDD% of consumer-to-business paymentsglobally.While account-to-account and local methods are a risk to debit(especially incertain markets), even where A2A/local payments have had success (e.g., India, Brazil),credit-cardvolumes are growing HSD-LDD%. Finally, on a 5yr time horizon,we viewstablecoins as a solution looking for a problemin retail consumer payments (note). INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate V, MA, ADYEN, XYZ and TOST OP. We rate PYPL, FIS, FISV, GPN, KLAR MP. PLEASE SEE LINKS TO OUR RECENT RESEARCH •Weekend Tech Byte: The 'cost' of cards — the often misleading comparisons; our perspectives in key charts (June 2026)•Visa: Reflections on our Fireside Chat with CEO Ryan McInerney(June 2026)•Payments: Stablecoins — What we learned from our dozens of industry conversations; Slide deck (May 2026)•Visa, Mastercard: Numbers look good but will it matter? (April 2026)•Visa, Mastercard: The bull case; slide deck from deep dive call on Agentic, Stablecoins, VAS and Regulation (March 2026)•The Age of Agents: Insights from our Inaugural Agentic Commerce Day (April 2026)•Payments: Mastercard's BVNK acquisition; what Stablecoins truly mean for payments (March 2026)•Visa, Mastercard: Payments-ocalypse, will AI doom the networks? (February 2026)•Payments: The growing regulatory risk premium? But will the numbers be impacted in the medium-term?•Payments/Fintech 2026: A year to remember? Top themes and stock ideas (January 2026)•Visa, Mastercard: Why we like the networks more now vs. 5yrs ago (October 2025)•Stablecoins: Let's Play Out a Scenario for Disruption in Consumer Payments..(June 2025)•Payments: What happens in a recession? (Mar 2025) DETAILS OUR FORECAST: ~8% CC (~7-8% NOMINAL) CARD VOLUME GROWTH FROM 2025-30 We forecast ~8% constant currency (~7-8% nominal) C2B purchase volume CAGR over the next 5 yea