美联储1968年至2020年的替代情景：数据、解读与评估

Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online) Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020:Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation Edward Herbst, Scott Konzem, and Cristina Scofield 2026-033 Please cite this paper as:Herbst, Edward, Scott Konzem, and Cristina Scofield (2026).“Alternative Scenarios atthe Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020:Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation,” Financeand Economics Discussion Series 2026-033. Washington: Board of Governors of the FederalReserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2026.033. NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation Edward Herbst, Scott R. Konzem, and Cristina ScofieldFederal Reserve Board†April 2026 Abstract We comprehensively document 1,265 Federal Reserve staff alternative scenariospresented to the Federal Open Market Committee in publicly released materials from1968 to 2020.Scenarios grew in frequency and sophistication, typically spanning arange of outcomes around the baseline. We construct a taxonomy with six categories:aggregate demand, aggregate supply, external risks, financial conditions, fiscal policy, 1Introduction Central banks rely heavily on forecasts in their internal deliberations, often emphasizing asingle “baseline” projection for key macroeconomic variables. Yet monetary policy is ulti- most likely path of the economy but also to take into account the possibility of less likely out-comes. Robust policymaking requires careful consideration of uncertainty and the range ofrisks surrounding the baseline projection. Against this backdrop, “alternative scenarios” have become an increasingly important tool in both policy deliberations and communications.1Alternative scenarios are structured point forecasts constructed under different assumptionsabout the evolution of the economy—for example, a sharp slowdown in productivity growthor a sudden rise in energy prices. They provide policymakers with concrete illustrations of Recent Federal Reserve communications illustrate the current practical relevance of sce-nario analysis.In December 2024, when asked about tariff policy at the press conferencefollowing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Chair Powell referred to staff scenarios prepared years earlier; a month later, he described the alternative scenarios Alternative scenarios have a long history at the Federal Reserve and other central banks. 3The first known mention of “alternative scenarios” in the publicly available FOMC historicalmaterials came at the April 1968 meeting, immediately following the collapse of the GoldPool and arrangements to manage the private-sector world gold price—a pivotal event inthe unraveling of the Bretton Woods System.4 Robert Solomon, director of the Division of What I shall try to do this morning is to place these meetings in perspective andsketch out for the Committee two alternative scenarios for the period ahead. One scenario involves a return to international monetary stability based on returningconfidence that the existing price of gold will be maintained; the other scenario From such crisis-motivated beginnings, alternative scenarios evolved into a regular featureof monetary policy analysis, expanding in both frequency and analytical sophistication. Inthis paper, we analyze the period from 1968 through 2020, capturing all years for which relevant FOMC historical materials are publicly available.6We examine the complete set ofpublic FOMC historical materials to comprehensively identify alternative scenarios presented We compile a dataset covering 1,265 alternative scenarios presented to the FOMC from1968 to 2020, including each scenario’s name and model used, if available.7 For the 1,132 scenarios appearing in a more structured form in the Greenbook and Tealbook A from 1989to 2020, we record narrative descriptions of the scenarios along with tabulated numericalforecasts for a selected set of macroeconomic variables. In addition, we record the narrativebalance-of-risks statements presented just prior to the presentation of scenarios: these riskstatements began to appear in the January 2008 Greenbook and were included in every Our paper makes three contributions.First, we provide a descriptive overview of theavailable historical record, documenting the number of alternative scenarios presented to theFOMC over time, the models used to construct them, and the Board staff’s overall assessmentof forecast uncertainty and the balance of risks. Second, we categorize the scenarios according captured by the scenarios and their co-movements, without reference to subsequent econom