美国春季种植应对能源和化肥成本（英）2026

Policy Backgrounder USSpring PlantingsRespond toEnergyandFertilizerCosts USDAreportsshow that farmersare shifting from planting wheatand corn to soybeans, a lessfertilizer-intense crop,and areplantingrecord-low wheat. On the global front, food security remainsvulnerable to risingfertilizerand otherinput costsdriven bythe warinthe Gulf. Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead ® •Soybeans are currently an attractive crop to farmers because they require significantlyless fertilizer input than corn, helping to reduce operating costs as fertilizer prices surgedue to the war inthe Gulf. All wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at 43.8millionacres (ma), down 3% from2025.1If realized, this figure represents the lowest all wheatplanted area since records began in 1919. •Following last week’s US-China summit, Chinacommitted2to purchasing at least $17billion annually of US agricultural products in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028, in additionto the soybean purchase commitments made in October 2025, when China agreed topurchase at least 25million metric tons (mmt)of US soybeansannually through2028.3 •US wheat ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected at 762million bushels (mb), down 18%from 2025/26. US wheat exports are forecast down 135 mb year to year to 775 mb, withthe drop in exports driven by small domestic crop and abundant competitor supplies. •The war inthe Gulfhas intensified global food security concerns by disrupting energy andfertilizer markets, driving higher fertilizer and food prices through increased oil and LNGcosts, with the UN World Food Programme warning that nearly 45 million additionalpeople could face acute food insecurity if the conflict persists and oil prices remainelevated. MoreSoybeans and Cotton, Less Corn and Wheat TheUS Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)recently released two major reportsthatestablish thefoundation of trends inUS crop acreageand grain inventories andthe baseline for agricultural markets each year. The annualProspective Plantings4report relies on survey data from producers to provide official estimatesof US farmers’ planting intentionsfor the year. The survey asks producers to indicate theprincipal crops they intend to plant in the current year and their acreage, as well as the previousyear’s harvest. The quarterlyGrain Stocks5report contains estimates of stocks for wheat, corn,sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, andmustard seed nationally, by state, and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage), collected fromtwo separate surveys that are sent to commercial grain storage operations. Farmers are Shifting to Soybeans, a Less Fertilizer-Intense Crop Soybean planted area for 2026 isestimatedat 84.7 million acres (ma), up 4% from last year.6Compared to 2025, planted acreage intentions are up or unchanged in 20 of 29 states, withincreases of300,000 acres or more in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, SouthDakota, and Wisconsin.Plantingacreagein Wisconsinwould be the largest on record. Producers are expected to plant95.3 ma of corn in 2026, a decrease of 3% from lastyear.7Compared to 2025, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of 48 states,with acreage decreases of 300,000 acres or more expected inthe Midwest and Plains States.Ifrealized, acreage planted in Nevada and Washington will be the largest on record. Soybeans are currently an attractive crop to farmers because they require significantly lessfertilizer input than corn, helping to reduce operating costs as fertilizer prices surge.8A 2025University of Illinois study estimated that farmers would invest approximately $229 per acre forcorn and $61 per acre for soybean nutrients in2026.9 At least half of soybean crops are exported,making them highly sensitive to global tradeconditions.10Farmers last yearpredictedless soybean acreage largely due to uncertaintysurrounding UStrade policywith China,the largest buyer of US soybeans.FollowingtheUS-China summit,Chinacommitted11to purchasingat least $17 billionannually of USagriculturalproducts in 2026 (prorated), 2027, and 2028, in addition to the soybean purchase commitmentsmade in October 2025,when China agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons(mmt)of USsoybeans in November and December 2025 and at least 25mmtannually through2028.12The2025 agreement followed six months of near-zero US soybean exports to China amid retaliatorytrade measures.US biofuelspolicyalso drives increased demand for US soybean production.In March 2026, EPA finalized itsRenewable Fuel Standard (RFS) “Set 2”rulewhichestablishedthe highest biofuel blending requirements in the program’shistory.13 Farmers to Plant Record-Low Wheat In contrast to soybeans, all wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at43.8 ma, down 3% from2025.14If realized, this figure represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. At 32.4 ma, winter wheat planted area is down 2