礼来（LLY）ADA - Reta树立新标准，Elora开发项目将成史上最大

Courtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com Woody Polglase+1 917 344 8314woody.polglase@bernsteinsg.com Louisa Qiu+1 917 344 8495louisa.qiu@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com Lilly (LLY) ADA - Reta sets a new bar & Elora developmentprogram to be largest ever Yesterday Lilly’s Retatrutide TRIUMPH-1 (obesity) and TRANSCEND-1 (diabetes) phase 3trials were presented & the day was capped with Lilly’s management meeting. While todayand tomorrow will include some more Orforglipron data (Foundayo), we think important toshare these insights immediately. We were impressed by the data - more so than the discussant, see slides over-leaf.Retatrutide was highly tolerable - the 4mg dose (which generated no more discontinuationsdue to adverse events than placebo) - delivered 17% weightloss. While 12mg dosegenerated bariatric-like weightloss of ~30%. We were particularly impressed that despite theaverage starting BMI of 40, by the end of 80weeks, one-third of patients achieved a normalBMI (<25) and two-thirds of patients were no longer obese (<30). Similar to other incretins,female participants achieved deeper weightloss (~7ppt) compared with males. While HbA1creductions in TRANSCEND did not clearly surpass that achieved with Tirzepatide, althoughmany patients were reaching normo-glycemia, an apparent floor, and the combined effectof deep-glucose control & deeper weight-loss is still an important step-up for these patientsthat have a harder time losing weight. In the management meeting, we were most interested in comments by Ken Custer thatthere should be no reason to not offer Retatrutide also in the cash-pay / consumer segment,particularly given the 4mg data, but also considering the needs for some patients to step-up to higher doses. This builds confidence that this product won’t be niched at the highestprices in the insurance segment for just the most-clinically necessary patients. Additionally,Eloralintide expectations are being elevated - with multiple comments that the developmentplan for this asset is likely to be the largest in Lilly’s history - a strong signal for the role thatmono-therapy amylin may play in the future, as well as highly tolerable comnbinations. Finally,we got less detail and commentary on early pipeline assets than usual, as Lilly try to defendtheir long-term leadership position and minimize the fast-following me-too agents. Weexpect to see minimal phase 1 details & anticipate only see phase 2 data shared when Lillyannounces ph3 program initiations. Investment Implications We rate LLY Outperform with a PT of $1,300. DETAILS LILLY ADA INVESTOR EVENT Lilly hosted a cardiometabolic investor event at ADA 2026, led by Ken Custer, Thomas Seck, and Ruth Gimeno. Dr. ThomasSeck is succeeding Dr. Jeff Emmick as the Head of Clinical Development for Cardiometabolic Health at Eli Lilly. Previously,Dr. Seck spent ~15 years at Boehringer Ingelheim (private) (rising to SVP, Head of Global Regulatory Affairs) and prior to thatwas Director of Clinical Research at Merck, focused on diabetes and obesity. Management emphasized that less than 1 in 10eligible patients are on incretin therapy in the US, underscoring the commercial opportunity, and outlined a goal of launching4-5 obesity medicines by end of decade. Foundayo (Orforglipron):Approved for weight management in the US in April 2026. Submitted internationally for weightmanagement and T2D in 45 countries so far. US T2D submission on track Q2 2026. Strong early launch with lower-BMI patientsdespite full promotional push not yet activated. Key efficacy: 2.2% HbA1c reduction in ACHIEVE-3 (consistent HbA1c reductionacross the ACHIEVE program), 12.4% weight loss achieved in ATTAIN-1, 95% weight maintenance after switching frominjectable Wegovy. Will present ACHIEVE-2, -3, and -5 at the Monday (June 8th) symposium. Reta (Retatrutide):Headline data from TRIUMPH-1 showed 28.3% weight loss at 80 weeks (30.3% in the extended subset)which is in the bariatric surgery territory. Low 4mg dose achieved 19% weightloss with discontinuation rate below placebo.TRANSCEND-T2D-1: 16.8% weightloss and ~2% HbA1c reduction at just 40 weeks, so efficacy may not have plateaued yet.OSA and OA knee pain baskets showed ~60% and ~70% improvements. Submission for obesity remains on track for H2 2026;T2D H1 2027. Elora (Eloralintide):Selective Amylin-1 agonist with 12.4-16.4% weightloss in Ph2 with no evidence of efficacy plateau,placebo-like GI tolerability, no titration needed at 3mg, goal of once weekly. Positioned as standalone non-incretin optionor add-on with incretin. Five Ph3 studies ongoing, including ENLIGHTEN-3 in OSA, ENLIGHTEN-4 in OA knee pain, andENLIGHTEN-5 as add-on to incretin therapy for additional weightloss. Combo data with tirzepatide expected H2 2026. Anticipate eloralintide clinical development program to be one of the largest in Lilly’s history. Q&A Foundayo laun