全球能源存储：基于储能系统上调电池需求预期及宁德时代目标价至770港元

Bernstein Energy: Raising battery demand estimates on ESS andCATL target price to HKD770 Battery demand is off to a stronger start than we expected driven by ESS, and weincrease our annual growth target for 2026 from 32% to 45%.We now expect globallithium-ion battery demand to grow by 800GWh to reach 2.6TWh in 2026. We also raise ourlonger term growth target, again on stronger than expected ESS demand to5.7GWh by2030 and 16.6TWh by 2050.This is roughly 10% higher than our previous estimates andpositive for the entire lithium-ion battery value chain. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com ESS demand estimates have been revised up for this year from 50% to 86% as tripledigit demand growth continues.China ESS shipments increased by 117% in 1Q . Whilethis rate of growth will not continue indefinitely, we remain upbeat on the prospects forgrowth for the rest of the year. We have revised up our estimates for ESS demand by 25%to 2.1TWh by 2030 and our long term demand estimates from 3.3TWh to 4.6TWh by 2030,based on longer durations and attachment rates. Kelvin Yuan, Ph.D., CFA+852 2123 2612kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com We slightly reduce our EV demand growth of 2026 based on a slower start to theyear than expected, but still forecast 15% growth this year to 1.2TWh. YTD EVdemand growth is off to a slow start with only 1% growth yoy of the first 4 months of theyear on slower demand in China and the US, partially offset by RoW growth. Battery demandfor the first 4M has been better however, with 9% growth YTD as consumer opt for pureBEV’s and EV’s with larger batteries. With slower than expect growth, we nudge down our2030 estimates for PV battery demand from 2.6 to 2.4TWh. We have also revised higher data center demand based on more rapid growth inhyperscaler capacity to 0.3TWh and now include this explicitly within our forecasts.With datacentre capacity likely to reach 200-220GW by 2030 (higher than our estimates of145GW from last year) we revise higher our estimates for lithium-ion battery demand whichis likely to reach a cumulative level of 931GWh. This implies a 13x increase in demand from2025 levels to 2030. Other demand, including commercial vehicles, two-wheelers, shipping and roboticsaccounts for 1.0TWh by 2030, but we leave estimates relatively unchanged.Weexpect strong growth in commercial vehicles this year to 240GWh which is an increase of67% YoY as China continues to electrify heavy-duty transport at pace. Other demand isexpected to see strong growth, rising 61% YoY to 82GWh. Two-wheelers remain the keydriver within this segment, growing 22% YoY to 62GWh We upgrade our price target for CATL (A) to 800/share and CATL (H) to 770/share.Based on our upgraded view of battery demand and CATL increased market share in EVbatteries to 40%, we increase our revenue estimates by 45% to RMB 616bn for this yearand our EPS to CNY21.9/sh (26% increase yoy and 4% above cons of CNY21.0). We alsoincrease our 2030 EPS estimate to CNY46.8/sh vs 39.6/sh previously, based on fasterbattery growth and higher market share. We update our DCF model to value CATL(H) atHKD770/sh and CATL(A) at 800/sh. Our target price for the CATL(H) implies c. 10% upsidewhile our A share valuation implies almost100% upside from current levels. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Battery demand is growing more rapidly than we expected. We increase our demand estimates from 2.4TWh to 2.6TWh for thisyear, which implies that market will grow by 45% in 2026. This is primarily driven by the exceptional growth in ESS which hasreached over 100% growth for the first 4M of this year. Battery ESS demand (for now) is exceeding EV battery demand. We alsorevise up our long term demand projections to 5.8TWH for 2030 and 16.6TWH for 2050, implying a 10x increase in growthfrom 2025 levels. CATL which is world’s larger battery maker is the largest beneficiary of this trend, and we upgrade our CATLH-share price target to HKD770/share (old: HKD600) (a WACC of 10.4% and the same terminal growth rate of 3% remainunchanged) and A-share target price to CNY800/share (old: CNY620) based on positive revisions to revenue and earnings (aWACC of 9.6% and terminal growth rate at 3% remain unchanged). While we see modest potential upside in the H-share valueat current levels (and rate CATL Market-Perform), there is almost 100% potential upside for A-share investors (where we rateCATL Outperform). VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS Global battery is growing more quickly than we expected. In China, ESS demand has doubled as market-based pricing andfalling battery costs improve economics. In the U.S., ESS batteries are emerging as a solution to power supply bottlenecks amidaccelerating electricity demand from data center build-outs. In Europe, the growing share of renewable is boosting batterydemand to stabilize grids. For long term investors we remain optimistic on the sector. Demand h