苹果：2026年WWDC有哪些看点？

Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 350.00 USD AAPL Apple: What to look for at WWDC 2026? Apple’s WWDC 2026 will run from Monday, June 8 through Friday, June 12. The event beginswith the keynote on June 8 at 10:00 am PT (1:00 pm ET), setting the stage for the week-longconference. Below is our quick preview of what to expect. No company is better positioned than Apple for consumer AI - if they get it right!Consider that Apple doesn’t need to spend the estimated $200bn a year in capex that peersspend, but still gets access to the best models on earth through partnerships and could stillmonetize AI through various ways we highlight below including via 3rdparty partnerships. As we highlighted in our recent Apple Deep Dive,Apple Intelligence presents a hugeopportunity to reinvent the company, accelerate product replacement cycles anddrive increased services revenue.We estimate 13% upside to EPS from acceleratingreplacement cycle and a further 16% upside to EPS from upselling a premium version ofApple Intelligence. We also see potential for Apple to charge a toll on future transactions where AppleIntelligence is the facilitator, which could potentially be significant upside toestimates. An alternative (or potential additional) way to monetize AI for Apple would bethrough transactions. For example if Apple Intelligence through 3rdparty partnerships wereto book a car (perhaps Uber?) for you to a meeting on your calendar, perhaps Apple couldtake a small cut of these economics? We believe this upside would be greater in the long-term than the earlier mentioned “freemium” approach. Apple is expected to use WWDC 2026 to reset expectations, reintroduce previouslydelayed capabilities, and showcase new innovations.Key things to watch: Google Gemini powered Siri, the “extensions” framework for interactions with 3rdparty apps, andemphasis on on-device AI and data security as Apple’s unique advantages. Investment Implications We see Apple as key beneficiary of AI. Reiterate Outperform, TP $350. DETAILS Apple’s WWDC 2026 will run from Monday, June 8 through Friday, June 12. The event begins with the keynote on June 8 at 10:00am PT (1:00 pm ET), setting the stage for the week-long conference. Below is our quick preview of what to expect. No company is better positioned than Apple for consumer AI - if they get it right!Consider that Apple doesn’t needto spend the estimated $200bn a year in capex that peers spend, but still gets access to the best models on earth throughpartnerships (see their recent partnership with Google Gemini as an example) and could still monetize AI through various wayswe highlight below including via 3rdparty partnerships. As we highlighted in our recent Apple Deep Dive,Apple Intelligence presents a huge opportunity to reinvent the company,accelerate product replacement cycles and drive increased services revenue.iPhone replacement cycle has beensteadily elongating from 2.3 years to 3.7 years which is why unit shipments have barely grown over the past decade despiteinstalled base increasing at 9% CAGR. Apple Intelligence could reverse this trend due to the need for latest and greatesthardware to run on-device AI models. We estimate 13% upside to EPS from accelerating replacement cycle and a further 16%upside to EPS from upselling a premium version of Apple Intelligence. Furthermore, with Apple’s recent acquisition of Q.ai (withunique IP to understand silent speech), and new devices such as smart glasses and improved AirPods with cameras, this couldbe a game changer for how we interact with devices (and a game changer to how Apple is perceived). We also see potential for Apple to charge a toll on future transactions where Apple Intelligence is the facilitator,which could potentially be significant upside to estimates. An alternative (or potential additional) way to monetize AI for Apple would be through transactions. For example if Apple Intelligence through 3rdparty partnerships were to book a car(perhaps Uber?) for you to a meeting on your calendar, perhaps Apple could take a small cut of these economics? This is just one simple example but with the recent DOJ ruling Apple is not restricted on dealing with multiple 3rdparties and can share in theeconomics. We believe this upside would be greater in the long-term than the earlier mentioned “freemium” approach. Since its debut at WWDC 2024, Apple Intelligence has faced a challenging rollout, marked by a tepid response to itsearly features and delays in introducing a more personalized Siri.Apple added ChatGPT integration as part of iOS 18,using it as a fallback for world-knowledge queries in Siri, and it's also accessible through Writing Tools and Image Playground.Today, ChatGPT is the only outside model wired into Apple Intelligence — users hand off to it in lieu of Apple's built-in options oniOS 26.