F4Q预览 - 持续加速

OracleReuters 4 June 2026 BuyNorth America United States ORCLUS ORCL.N Software F4Q Preview - Consistent Acceleration Research Analyst+1-212-250-8563 into Oracle'sfiscal year end as thefocus shifts to execution on itsmulti-year OCibuildoutthat is centraltodelivering revenueand EPStargets.Wearemodelingafifthstraight quarterof0Claccelerationto+89%y/y@ccvs.Streetat+92%; withmgmt. indicating intra-quarter that capacity deliveries were tracking at or abovelast quarter's ~40oMW, revenue somewhere around these levels looksachievable.Linearity ofnew capacitythroughthe quarteris thebig swingfactor,and with limited visibility from the outside it's hard for us to make a more precisecall on the quarter itself, but suffice to say Oracle appears to be delivering largelyonschedulewhichshould continuetobuild confidencein itsexecutionas itaimsto increase its pace ahead.Beyond the headline OCl number, we will also bewatching for stable to accelerating growth in higher margin SaaS and Cloud DBthat remain important secondary drivers of the business,as well as transactionalLicenserevenuethat isseasonallyweightedtowardF4Qand canhaveanoutsized impact on EPS --our checks in these areas were generallypositive thisquarter, especially for multicloud database. ResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-6775 Research Associate+1-415-2622041 Research Associate+1-212-250-1203 Looking ahead, we anticipate we'll get updated guidance for FY27 that currentlycallsfor revenuetoaccelerateto>30%ylyat $90bnand$8.00 inEPS.Theoverwhelming majorityof topline growth is expectedto come from OCl,whereconsensus is $38bn (+110% y/y). Similar to last year, this will hinge on the abilityto stand up new capacity and convert existing backlog to revenue on schedule;any changes toguidancewouldmost likelybe a reflection of updatedsupplysidefactors, in our view. To support this growth and account for increasing inputprices, we expect CapEx will rise materially in FY27 vs. ~$50bn in FY26. We aremodeling CapEx~$85bn forFY27 vs.Street at $69bn and if anything see upsiderisktoournumberbasedonanticipated Aldriven revenuegrowth overthenext18 months. Importantly, amid all this investment we still expect operating incomegrowth to increase to ~20% yly from ~15% in FY26, as continued gross margincompression is ingoodpartoffsetbylowerOpExintensityasthebusinessmodelshifts moretoward Al infrastructure and the companystreamlines the org.chart.While our forecast does imply non-GAAP operating margins down ~3pts yly to40%,our recent analysis suggests close to half of this is driven by more transitoryimpactsfrompre-revenue costs associated withhypergrowth of planned cloudcapacityadditions and prioryearuseful life accounting changes. In ourview,Oracle is enteringtheinflectionpointin its cloudbuildout/investmentcycle,whichweexpecttotemporarilyputpressureonmarginsandFCFoverthenext couple years.We also anticipate it will continue to fuel questions about Oracle interested to hear initial thoughts from incoming CFO Hilary Maxson.As anindustry,we've seen Al infrastructure players increasingly partner and get morecreative in how theyfund build outs to manage balance sheets/FCF; BYOC-HWwelcome addition to the toolkit and we will be interested on the composition ofstructures as more financing tools than differentiated offerings, and ourunderlying positive bias on the stock stems from our viewthat Al Infrastructurebacklog will be a highly value creative business over time (complementaryopportunities in Core OCl, Cloud DB, and Applications), which gives us comfortaround the investment cycle underway to capture this. We reiterate our Buy ratingand $300 DCF derived target price. Positives: OCl demandtrends remain healthywith continuedflow of 7-figure dealscomingfrommore traditional Red Stack customers in thequarter.OraclewassaidtobeencouragingclientstosignOCl contractsnowandrequiring higher minimum commit size and multi-year commits to getfirmguaranteedcapacity,somethingclientsreportedlywerecomfortablewithgiven supply scarcity concerns.Sovereign/DRCCdeploymentmodels havebeenpopularinternationallyand are being designed to include Al infrastructure in addition to the coreOCl cloud stack.Growing multicloud momentum where we heard of several largerDatabase@AWS deals again this quarter and a notable uptick in activitywithGCPwhowas saidtobeperhapsmostalignedwithOracleintermsof joint customer engagement, capacity guarantees and contract T&Cs.ARR uplift on cloud databasemigrationstracked by one of ourcontactswas said to be trending higher vs.a flat to +2x range seen on initial deals.Quotes are reportedly coming in at an implied ~4x uplift, with most dealsseen settling in the~3-3.5xrange anda floorof~2x,all whenfactoring inthe entire scope of the cloud solution.Saas performance was notably strong, with one partner citingoutperformance withFusion Cloud ERP as the largestupside surpriseand strength in NetSuite despite internal restructuring that likely reduceddirect NetSuite sales capacity.Customers con