经合组织2026年钢铁展望

OECD Steel Outlook2026 This work was approved and declassified by the OECD Steel Committee on 12 May 2026. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. ISBN 978-92-64-59445-6 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-80606-1 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-55269-2 (HTML) OECD Steel OutlookISSN 1995-3917 (print)ISSN 1999-1185 (online) Photo credits:Cover © QinJin/Shutterstock.com. Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Attribution– you must cite the work.Translations– you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and thetranslation, only the text of the original work should be considered valid.Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed inthis adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries.Third-party material– the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and forany claims of infringement.You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses your use of the work.Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shallbe Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one. Foreword The steel industry plays a critical role in economic growth and national security, including economicsecurity. Steel is required in nearly all industrial activities, construction and infrastructure, all forms ofenergy generation, and is a critical inputfor numerous strategic sectors of the economy. However, theglobal steel industry’s viability is seriously challenged by growing excess capacity driven by pervasivesubsidies and other non-market policies and practices in certain economies. The OECD’s Steel Committee plays a vital role in advancing transparency and promoting a level playingfield in the global steel sector. This report highlights the important work recently conducted by the SteelCommittee in key areas, including the global steel market and industry prospects; developments insteelmaking capacity; the use of subsidies and other non-market policies and practices that distort markets;and trade actions to address level-playing-field problems facing steel producers worldwide. Itprovides acomprehensive, yet succinct, assessment of the current situation and an informed outlook for the future. Acknowledgements This report was produced by the OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Directorate (STI), under theleadership of Jerry Sheehan, STI Director, Kévin Magron, STI Deputy Director, Stephan Raes, Head ofthe Structural and Industry Policy Division, and Sebastian Ordelheide, Head of Communications. The report was prepared by Peter Avery, consultant, and Anthony de Carvalho, Head of the OECD SteelUnit, based on work discussed and declassified by the OECD Steel Committee. Current and previousmembers of the Steel Unit (Aryan Agarwal, Adrien Corneille,Luciano Giua, Danhak Gu, Claire Hoffmann,Fabien Mercier, Masanobu Nakamizu, Elyas Pannetier, Pieter Parmentier, Rodrigo Pazos, Michele Rimini,Maika Sakamoto and Lenka Wildnerova) authored and/or contributed to the original research and analysisbroughttogether in this report. Sanela Bajrovic and Pauline Barbet provided the organisational andproduction support that made this publication possible, while Julie Harris made indispensable editorialcontributions. The OECD Steel Unit wishes to express its special appreciation to the delegates of the Steel Committee.Delegates have contributed immensely to this work through their expert guidance, review and commentson previous drafts. Table of contents 3 Foreword Acknowledgements Abbreviations and acronyms7 Executive summary8 1International efforts to address the steel crisis are intensifying10 The steel crisis is deepening, but new policy solutions are on the horizon11Non-market policies and practices continue to drive global excess capacity and hamper thetransition to low-emission steel production13Steel subsidisation rates are rising, mainly outside of the OECD area13Trade actions are increasing, but so are efforts to undermine and evade them15Export restrictions and raw materials pressures compound the threat of excess capacity to theindustry’s viability17Int