经合组织2026年钢铁展望

OECD Steel Outlook This work was approved and declassified by the OECD Steel Committee on 12 May 2026. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Please cite this publication as: OECD (2026),OECD Steel Outlook 2026, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/99ab9b0c-en. ISBN 978-92-64-59445-6 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-80606-1 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-55269-2 (HTML) OECD Steel OutlookISSN 1995-3917 (print)ISSN 1999-1185 (online) Photo credits:Cover © QinJin/Shutterstock.com. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found at: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.© OECD 2026 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) Attribution– you must cite the work. Translations– you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and thetranslation, only the text of the original work should be considered valid.Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed in Foreword The steel industry plays a critical role in economic growth and national security, including economicsecurity. Steel is required in nearly all industrial activities, construction and infrastructure, all forms ofenergy generation, and is a critical inputfor numerous strategic sectors of the economy. However, the The OECD’s Steel Committee plays a vital role in advancing transparency and promoting a level playingfield in the global steel sector. This report highlights the important work recently conducted by the SteelCommittee in key areas, including the global steel market and industry prospects; developments insteelmaking capacity; the use of subsidies and other non-market policies and practices that distort markets; Acknowledgements This report was produced by the OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Directorate (STI), under theleadership of Jerry Sheehan, STI Director, Kévin Magron, STI Deputy Director, Stephan Raes, Head of The report was prepared by Peter Avery, consultant, and Anthony de Carvalho, Head of the OECD SteelUnit, based on work discussed and declassified by the OECD Steel Committee. Current and previousmembers of the Steel Unit (Aryan Agarwal, Adrien Corneille,Luciano Giua, Danhak Gu, Claire Hoffmann,Fabien Mercier, Masanobu Nakamizu, Elyas Pannetier, Pieter Parmentier, Rodrigo Pazos, Michele Rimini,Maika Sakamoto and Lenka Wildnerova) authored and/or contributed to the original research and analysis The OECD Steel Unit wishes to express its special appreciation to the delegates of the Steel Committee.Delegates have contributed immensely to this work through their expert guidance, review and comments Table of contents 3 Foreword Acknowledgements Abbreviations and acronyms Executive summary 1International efforts to address the steel crisis are intensifying The steel crisis is deepening, but new policy solutions are on the horizonNon-market policies and practices continue to drive global excess capacity and hamper thetransition to low-emission steel productionSteel subsidisation rates are rising, mainly outside of the OECD areaTrade actions are increasing, but so are efforts to undermine and evade themExport restrictions and raw materials pressures compound the threat of excess capacity to the 2 Steel market and industryprospects Global steel demand remains fragile in 2026 and beyondSteel prices have diverged worldwideRaw material prices have increased more than steel recently 3 Global steelmaking capacity reaches new highs Structural excess capacity worsensRecent developments in steelmaking capacity 4 Steel subsidies continue to increase, severely distorting markets Growing steel subsidies are eroding market-driven behavioursMonitoring support measures in selected countries and regions 6 5 Trade actions increase as the steel crisis worsens63 Recent trade remedy investigations on steel productsOther measures affecting the steel tradeTrade diversion and the circumvention of trade measuresExport restrictions on steelmaking materialsReferences FIGURES Figure1.1. Global steel excess capacity projected to reach 745million tonnes by 2028Figure1.2. China’s steel exports have surged to record highs, unlike trends in other regionsFigure1.3. Steel subsidies continue unabated in some non-OECD economiesFigure1.4. Transmission channels of excess capacity globallyFigure2.1. Hot-rolled coil prices are much higher in the United States and EuropeFigure2.2. Rebar prices are increasing in the United States, while they remain stable (though at elevatedlevels) in the European UnionFigure2.3. Prices for iron ore, metallurgical coal and scrap have been increasingFigure2.4. Profitability of s