5月销售稳健；土地溢价推动市场情绪

China Real Estate intoJuneforthosewithabundantsaleableresources Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+85229966918Oliver Yu* + Land market on track to improve; high-premium sales suggestdevelopersare rebuilding confidence Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85222882050Stephen Wang*,CFA PreferCRLandC&D-bothratedBuy we cover delivered solid May sales with positive average y-o-y growth, led by CRLand (+28% y-o-y), Yuexiu (+18% y-0-y) and COLI (+14% y-0-y). Notably, thesecompanies' share prices rose on average by 7% (vs HSl: -2%) in May, primarilyreflectingtheirimprovingfundamentals,althougharecentpauseindicatesmarketconcernoverthesustainabilityoftherebound(Apausebeforemorecatalystsmaterialise, 19 May 2026).We expect momentum to continue through June,especiallyfordevelopers with richpipelines on the back ofa low base last year.We think the recent positive sell-through of Shenzhen high-end projects highlightsresilient upgrader demand, setting market expectations forhigh-quality SoEdevelopers'sales and earnings this year. Hangzhou luxury projects are also key towatch (April sales: Hangzhou heat. wider split, 4 May 2026). Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+85222841675Brian Yu* Associate,Asia Real EstateResearch The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbrian.d.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85228227281 not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Land market shows early signs of recovery: The Shanghai land market stands out,with five plots sold for cRMB11bn on 29 May, four of which were sold at 17-40% abovereserve prices. High-premium transactions in Suzhou and Nanjing also point toimproving developer confidence; notably, COLI acquired a Suzhou residential plot forRMB1.7bn, 30% above the reserve price,setting a provincial record for price per sqm.National land sale declines narrowed to 36% in 5M26 (from 41% in 4M26),and theaverage premium over the reserve price increased to 10% (from 6% in 4M25).We thinka recovery in the land market further supports recovery visibility for high-qualitydevelopers, showing rebuilt confidence following improving sales performance. Shanghai secondary transactions remain the bright spot: May transactionssustained the strong March-April momentum following the earlier easing of purchaserestrictions, reaching a five-year high. Secondary home prices have also risen m-o-mforthree consecutive months,accordingto NBS,witha0.7%increase inApril.Webelievetherecent recovery is notsolelya short-term holidayupliftoraone-offreleaseof pent-up demand from policy easing (May holiday pulse check:busy sites.bettersales, 8 May 2026); rather, we expect a better wealth effect and a meaningfulimprovementinaffordability(Demandreawakens:Affordabilityatadecade-bestlevel26 May 2026) to structurally underpin organic sales growth over the coming months. Stock preference:We maintain ourpreference forCRL and C&D (both rated Buy),given their strong execution capabilities in high-end projects, robust pricing powerand potential for an earnings recovery from2027.We also expect CRL tobenefitfrom investment property revaluations as the C-REITs market continues to expand. HSBC Funding the Future Survey Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosure appendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews orforecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendation(s)or views contained in this research report: MichelleKwok, OliverYu, Stephen Wang,CFAand Brian Yu. Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to des