反思高加索和中亚的财政政策和框架

MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA DEPARTMENT RethinkingFiscal Policyand Frameworks in theCaucasus and CentralAsia Prepared by Masud Al Taj, Nazim Belhocine,Alejandro Hajdenberg, Iva Petrova,Carlos Segura Santana, Shuyu Wang, andTongli Zhang INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA DEPARTMENT DEPARTMENTALPAPER RethinkingFiscal Policyand Frameworks in theCaucasus and CentralAsia Prepared by Masud Al Taj, Nazim Belhocine,Alejandro Hajdenberg, Iva Petrova,Carlos Segura Santana, Shuyu Wang, andTongli Zhang Cataloging-in-PublicationDataIMFLibrary Names: Al Taj, Masud, author. | Belhocine, Nazim, author. | Hajdenberg, Alejandro, author. | Petrova, Title: Rethinking fiscal policy and frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia / Prepared by Masud Al Taj,Nazim Belhocine, Alejandro Hajdenberg, Iva Petrova, Carlos Segura Santana, Shuyu Wang, and TongliZhang. Other titles: Departmental paper. | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2026. | Includes bibliographical references.Identifiers: ISBN: This IMF Departmental Paper was prepared by an IMF team under the overall guidance of Subir Lall. Theauthors are grateful to Jihad Azour for his strategic guidance, and Ali El-Eyd and Alexander Tieman for theirvery helpful comments. The authors also thank seminar participants at the IMF and at the Caucasus, CentralAsia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center (CCAMTAC) for helpful suggestions. Theauthors acknowledge the support from the IMF’s Fiscal Department. The paper also benefited from helpfulcomments from IMF departments and Executive Directors during the review process. The authors alsothank Nasim Amini Abbas of the IMF Communications Department for leading the editorial and productionprocess, Desislava Hineva and Branden Laumann for production assistance, and Nihal Haider for researchassistance. The Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or cross-country interest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Contents Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .v A. Historical and Institutional Legacies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3B. Fiscal Institutions and the Role of the State. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4C. Medium-Term Frameworks and Fiscal Rules. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6D. Automatic Stabilizers: Structural Features. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9E. Fiscal Risk Management: Institutional Practices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 3. Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in the CCA: Stabilization, Growth, and Sustainability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 A. The Stabilization Function of Fiscal Policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12B. Automatic Stabilizers and Discretionary Fiscal Policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13C. Fiscal Rules and Stabilization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14D. Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16E. Fiscal Sustainability and Risk Exposure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 4. Reform Priorities: Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks in the CCA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 A. Recalibrating Fiscal Rules to Support Stabilization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24B. Anchoring Policy in Credible MTFFs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25C. Strengthening Automatic Stabilizers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .