高通（QCOM）：伯恩斯坦SDC会议的主要收获

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.comAlrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.comArpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Qualcomm (QCOM) Cristiano Amon, President and Chief Executive Officer Wednesday, 5/27 1:30pm - 2:20pm Key Takeaways:The conversation was focused on QCOM’s diversification story and performance within end markets as well as futureopportunities and demand drivers. The core handset business, while currently artificially constrained by memory availability is fundamentallyhealthy and is seen as troughing in Q3 as QCOM has good visibility and has been undershipping demand. Longer-term, the company hasstrong confidence in AI phone upgrades cycles driven by agentic AI. Both the Auto and IoT segments are on track with respect to FY29targets with the former underpinned by a growing $45B+ pipeline and share gains. While the latter sees outperformance in AI devices (AR/VR and wearables), PCs are also impacted by memory availability. The Datacenter opportunity is expected to contribute multiple-billions inFY27 and will be operating margin accretive. Highlights: •The handset business is artificially constrained by memory availability but is expected to trough in 3Q, with management having strongconfidence of recovery due to undershipping end demand and strong visibility. Longer term, QCOM is very confident in AI phoneupgrades cycles driven by agentic AI for which current handsets offer insufficient compute. •The Auto business is healthy and is on or slightly ahead of its $8B trajectory for FY29, underpinned by a growing $45B+ pipeline. QCOMis gaining share in the market with market growth driven by increasing compute needs in the car (ADAS level 2++, digital cockpit andconnectivity).•IoT which consists of core industrial IoT, PCs, Personal AI devices (AR/VR, smart glasses, wearables) is also on track to hit FY29 targets,with a smart glasses being a bright spot (currently 10s of million of units which could move to 100s of billions). PCs while impacted by thesame memory dynamics as handsets in the short-term are also tracking in terms of market share.•The Datacenter opportunity is viewed as material (multiple billions of revenue $ in FY27) and is expected to be operating marginaccretive. QCOM views itself as strongly positioned in the market with valuable IP, execution capabilities and scale and is targeting theinference market where it sees its CPU offering and different memory architecture (no HBM required) as differentiators. Presentation attendance:High BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Qualcomm Inc We value QCOM by setting a target multiple of ~14x applied to our FY2027 diluted EPS estimate (~$9.77) and set our price targetat $140. RISKS Qualcomm Inc Downside risks to our price target on QCOM include further customer lawsuits, disputes, or revolts over licensing practices, furtherissues monetizing China, "leakage" of IP issues, 5G penetration and ramp slower than we model resulting in lower device or chipsetunit growth, or device and/or chipset ASPs declining faster than we model. Upside risks include better-than-expected smartphoneshipments, memory constraints easing, share gains, or material datacenter wins. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) ex