Earnings recovery may take time after 1Q26 loss

Li Auto Inc. (LI US/2015 HK) Earnings recovery may take time after 1Q26loss Maintain HOLD.Li Autorecorded the largest quarterly net loss since its 2020IPO. We expect net loss to extend into 2Q26E. While we still believe it is anoutstanding company,we are of the view thatLi Auto’sadvantageover peershas been narrowingbeforephysical AI become pivotalin the future.We cut ourFY26-27E net profit forecasts,which make its valuation unattractive(nowtrading at 213x FY26E P/E and18x FY27E P/E). China Auto 1Q26 revenue, GPM in line; strict SG&A control.Li Auto’s 1Q26revenue declined 11% YoY to RMB23.0bn,landing preciselyin line withour prior forecast. GPM narrowed by 10pptsQoQto 7.9% in 1Q26,or0.4ppts higher than our projection.SG&A expenses were aboutRMB650mn lower than our forecast, resulting in anarrower-than-expectednet loss of RMB2.3bn.Despite its cost control beat, the result still marksthe automaker’slargest quarterlynet loss sinceits IPO in 2020. Portfolio maturity and mix shifts limit Li Auto’s near-term upside.Wemaintain our FY26E sales volume forecast of 0.49mn units, albeit with aworse model mix—we have raised sales volumeassumptionfor the low-margini6andtrimmedour outlookfor thepremiumL9. Managementhasguided a monthly sales volume of 6,000-8,000 units for the redesignedL9after ramping up amid heightened competition. More importantly, weseelimited growth headroom for FY27-28E deliveries given thematurity andcomprehensiveness of Li Auto’s existing model portfolio. GPMpressurecould bemore prolonged thanpreviouslyanticipated.Management has guided a vehicle GPM of about 10% for 2Q26, as thei6’sGPM is stilllowat asingle digit. We cut our FY26 GPM forecast from 17.6%to 15.0%—a trajectory that still optimistically requires 4Q26 recovery to 18-19%. More structurally, despite its premiumization efforts, Li Auto is now ina more difficult position to differentiate its products from competitors.Therefore, we project its GPM to be17.4% in FY27E and 17.1% in FY28E,evenascomponent prices fully normalize. Earnings/Valuation.With key assumptions outlined above, we cut ourFY26E net profit forecast by 85% to RMB511mn and FY27E net profit by21% to RMB6.1bn.We maintain our HOLDratings for ADS/H-share andtrim target prices from US$18.00/HK$70.00 to US$16.00/HK$62.00, whichis based on18x(prior 17x) our FY27E P/E. Key risks to our ratings andtarget prices include higher or lower sales volume and GPM than weexpect, anda sector re-rating or de-rating. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for thecontent of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securitiesor issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (asdefined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listedcompanies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevantbroad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road,Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) ImportantDisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.Thevalue of,