安哥拉：四大宏观经济援助机构：ão de Escopo小姐；第2026/027号联邦税务局局长助理

ANGOLA Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance:Scoping Mission May2026 Simone Maciel Cuiabano, Ricardo Alves Monteiro, and Maria Sofia Anastacio (ICDMF) The Department High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Report Institute for Capacity Development Angola: Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance: Scoping Mission ReportPrepared by Simone Maciel Cuiabano, Ricardo Alves Monteiro, Maria Sofia Anastacio TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summariesofthe assistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-levelobjectives, findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT:This document outlines the initiation and early stages of a Technical Assistance projectdesignedto improve Angola's Ministry of Planning(MinPlan)macroeconomic framework,ensuringconsistency across the four sectors of the economy. Following a request from Angolan authorities, IMF ICDstaff engaged in comprehensive virtual discussions with the MinPlan and Ministry of Finance in February,March, and May 2025. A scoping mission was held in Luanda in May 2025 to diagnose existing capacityand resources at the National Directorate of Socioeconomics Studies (DNESE) for forecasting and policyanalysis.The agreed-on action plan is centered around the customization of the MacroeconomicFoundations Tool (MFT), which will assist the directorate in more effectively achieving their responsibilitiesas coordinator of the Macroeconomic Programming exercise. This technical assistance mission was made possible thanks to the financial support of the government ofJapan. DISCLAIMER The contents of this report constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of the Angola (the “CD recipient”) in response to theirrequest for capacity development (CD). Unless the CD recipient specifically objects within 30 business daysof its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org (seeStaff Operational Guidanceon the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). International Monetary Fund, IMF PublicationsP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.T. +(1) 202.623.7430 • F. +(1) 202.623.7201publications@IMF.orgIMF.org/pubs Background The technical assistance (TA) project in Angola was initiated following a request from the Ministryof Planning (MinPlan) to strengthen their macroeconomic forecasting capabilities. Angola'seconomy, heavily reliant on the oil sector, faces significant volatility due to fluctuating oil prices, impactingfiscal revenues and economic stability. The authorities recognized the need for a robust macroeconomicframework to better navigate these challenges and ensure consistency across economic sectors. A scoping mission initiated a Macroeconomic Framework TA project to support the DNESE inbuilding capacity and enhancing their macroeconomic programing.The scoping mission took placein Luanda during May 26-30, 2025. This mission diagnosed and assessed the current macroeconomicforecasting and policy analysis systems at the DNESE, including current tools in use, and delivered atraining course focusing on the essentials of financial programming. The scoping information was used todevelop and agree with the authorities on an action plan for the TA project. This initiative aligns with previous Fund capacity development projects and surveillancepriorities, offering a structured approach to macroeconomic forecasting that incorporates sector-specific inputs and facilitates dialogue among ministries.The recommendations are expected toimprove policy formulation and execution, particularly in managing the economic impacts of oil priceshocks and transitioning to an inflation-targeting monetary policy framework. Summary of Findings The DNESE is adequately staffed at this moment to support its core functions and efficientlyabsorb the CD project.DNESE is composed of 2 Departments, one dedicated to macroeconomicprojections, the Department for Macroeconomic Policy and Management (DPGM), and another related todemographics. DPGM has 7 staff, including the Chief of Department. The authorities are committed tomaking their team fully available for the duration of the CD project. The DNESE has good working relationships with other technical teams in other agencies. There isa multi-agency working group, including MinFin, the National Bank of Angola (BNA) and theNational Institute of Statistics (INE).An accessible macroeconomic framework tool would foster furthercooperation among the teams and discussions at the expert level. Both MinFin and BNA have been recipients of TA projects.MinFin has started publishing theMedium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) and fiscal strategy in 2024 and BNA maintains a rich portfolio ofanalytical tools for current economic situation assessments, Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecastingcapabilities (NNTF) and medium-term forecasting, including a Forecasting Policy Assessme