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ANGOLA Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance: May2026 Prepared BySimone Maciel Cuiabano, Ricardo Alves Monteiro, and Maria Sofia Anastacio (ICDMF) The DepartmentInstitute for Capacity Development High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Report Institute for Capacity Development Angola: Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance: Scoping Mission ReportPrepared by Simone Maciel Cuiabano, Ricardo Alves Monteiro, Maria Sofia Anastacio TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summariesofthe assistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-level objectives, findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT:This document outlines the initiation and early stages of a Technical Assistance projectdesignedto improve Angola's Ministry of Planning(MinPlan)macroeconomic framework,ensuringconsistency across the four sectors of the economy. Following a request from Angolan authorities, IMF ICDstaff engaged in comprehensive virtual discussions with the MinPlan and Ministry of Finance in February, JEL Classification Numbers:E17,O11, O55 Keywords: Macroeconomic Framework, Financial Programming and Policies, MacroeconomicFoundations Tool (MFT) This technical assistance mission was made possible thanks to the financial support of the government of DISCLAIMER The contents of this report constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of the Angola (the “CD recipient”) in response to theirrequest for capacity development (CD). Unless the CD recipient specifically objects within 30 business days Background The technical assistance (TA) project in Angola was initiated following a request from the Ministryof Planning (MinPlan) to strengthen their macroeconomic forecasting capabilities. Angola'seconomy, heavily reliant on the oil sector, faces significant volatility due to fluctuating oil prices, impacting A scoping mission initiated a Macroeconomic Framework TA project to support the DNESE inbuilding capacity and enhancing their macroeconomic programing.The scoping mission took placein Luanda during May 26-30, 2025. This mission diagnosed and assessed the current macroeconomicforecasting and policy analysis systems at the DNESE, including current tools in use, and delivered a This initiative aligns with previous Fund capacity development projects and surveillancepriorities, offering a structured approach to macroeconomic forecasting that incorporates sector-specific inputs and facilitates dialogue among ministries.The recommendations are expected to Summary of Findings The DNESE is adequately staffed at this moment to support its core functions and efficientlyabsorb the CD project.DNESE is composed of 2 Departments, one dedicated to macroeconomicprojections, the Department for Macroeconomic Policy and Management (DPGM), and another related to The DNESE has good working relationships with other technical teams in other agencies. There isa multi-agency working group, including MinFin, the National Bank of Angola (BNA) and the Both MinFin and BNA have been recipients of TA projects.MinFin has started publishing theMedium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) and fiscal strategy in 2024 and BNA maintains a rich portfolio ofanalytical tools for current economic situation assessments, Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecasting The DNESE’s current macroeconomic framework to produce forecasts has some gaps.TheDNESE uses isolated regression models and forecasting tools, which are helpful, but lack integration andfeedback loops. In addition, beyond the baseline, policy makers are not well equipped with the ability ofalternative risk scenarios. The DNESE has a new mandate to prepare a comprehensive macroeconomic Summary of Recommendations The DNESE would benefit from a macroeconomic framework tool with an economic structure toproduce consistent baseline forecasts and assess policy and risk scenarios.Developing andbuilding the capacity to operate a macroeconomic framework tool with behavioral linkages across themacroeconomic sectors will enhance the DNESE input into policymaking and assist in achieving their Training in macroeconomic and forecasting techniques is crucial to equip the core team with theskills needed to develop and operate the MFT effectively.The project should prioritize intensivetraining at the onset, ensuring a homogeneous knowledge base among staff. Regular remote check-ins The mission team recommended to both MinPlan and MinFin to participate jointly in this TA toenhance coordination and ensure good practices for the macro-fiscal projections.While MinPlan is Next Steps and Agreed Action Plan The authorities agreed with the mission team on an Action Plan for a macroeconomic frameworkTA project, centered on the customization of the Fund’s Macroframework Foundations Tool (MFT).The MFT is an internally consistent model of the economy, based on FPP principles. Its key