缓冲衰退：劳动力市场的不对称性与自雇角色

Buffering Recessions Labor Market Asymmetriesand the Role of Self-Employment Prakash LounganiEmiliano LuttiniHayley Pallan Development EconomicsProspects GroupMarch 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11089 Abstract The employment structure in emerging markets and devel-oping economies (EMDEs) differs markedly from that inadvanced economies, which has implications for adjustmentto cyclical conditions. This paper examines the cyclical-ity of employment in advanced economies and EMDEs.Although EMDEs exhibit a more violent GDP cycle thanadvanced economies, advanced economies present a steeperand more violent employment cycle. In the short term, an employment composition that is more biased towardself-employment, which is less cyclical, explains about 70percent of these differences, while in the medium-term itaccounts for about 40 percent. These characteristics explainwhy, during recessions, employment in advanced econo-mies is more sensitive to economic fluctuations than inEMDEs. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. BufferingR ecessions:LaborMarketAsymmetriesandtheRoleofSelf-Employment PrakashLoungani,EmilianoLuttini,andHayleyPallan∗ Keywords:Unemployment,Employment,Outputfluctuations,Informality JELCodes:E24,E26,E32 1Introduction The structure of employment in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) dif-fers markedly from that in advanced economies.In EMDEs self-employment is a largerproportion of jobs and this feature tends to be inversely related to the level of economicdevelopment (Figure 1). For example, the share of self-employment in total employment isnearly three times as large in EMDEs compared to advanced economies. This fact reflectsstructural differences in labor markets, as self-employment is frequently linked to informalemployment in EMDEs.In addition, Figure 2 indicates that recessions affect labor mar-kets in advanced economies more than in EMDEs; relative to changes in overall economicactivity, unemployment rises substantially more in advanced economies than in EMDEs.In this paper, we aim to combine these pieces to document how the composition of labormarkets—specifically, the share of wage and self-employment—shapes the cyclical responseof employment. This paper examines the cyclicality of employment using a sample of 28 advanced economiesand 30 EMDEs. We revisit the empirical fact that labor markets in advanced economies tendto respond more strongly to output fluctuations. We empirically test the employment, wage,and self-employment response and find differences in their cyclical properties. Our resultsdemonstrate that the divergence in the employment-to-output elasticities—which we alsorefer to as Okun’s coefficient—between country groups is explained by a different sectoralcomposition of employment that shapes a more nuanced response of the labor market dur-ing recessions. During economic contractions, labor markets in advanced economies respondmore sharply than in EMDEs, while labor market cyclicality in both country groups is similarduring expansions. Although EMDEs exhibit a more violent GDP cycle than advanced economies, withsimilar asymmetry across both groups, these features do not necessarily translate into com-parable patterns for employment. The differences between the adjustment of GDP expan-sions relative to recessions—the cycle’s violence—show that recessions are more violent inEMDEs than in advanced economies.Additionally, the skewness coefficient—used to testwhether contractions, on average, are steeper than expansions—shows that recessions occur more rapidly than recoveries in GDP for both country groups. Surprisingly, none of theseproperties holds for employment. Employment adjustment is more violent during economiccontractions in advanced economies than in EMDEs. Moreover, advanced economies show amore pronounced skewness in employment compared to GDP, while the opposite is true forEMDEs.These facts have implications for the average response of employment to outputfluctuations; over the short-term, a one-year horizon, a one percentage point increase inGDP growth is associated with only a 0.2 percentage point increase in employment growthin EMDEs, compared to a 0.4 percentage point increase in advanced economies. Similarly,in the medium-term, three-year horizon, a one percentage point increase in GDP growth isassoc