2026年第一季度欧洲公路货运运价发展基准报告

CONTENTS 01.European Road Freight Rate Benchmark Index................302.Volume Development03.Comparison of International LanesComparison of Domestic LanesEuropean Road Freight Rates Sentiment Index...................................................................7Supply Side Issues04.05.06..........................................................................13.....................................19..............................................26 BENCHMARK SPOT AND CONTRACT Data on Rates In Q1 2026, the European road freight rate indexes (Jan 2017 = 100) showed continued divergence Contract rates rose to 140.1 index points, a solid 3.2-point increase quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and an8.9-point increase year on year (YoY), reflecting sustained demand for contracted volumes at higher Meanwhile, spot rates edged down slightly to 132.3 index points, falling by 2.8 points QoQ and endingthe period 2.0 points lower YoY. This suggests a cooling-off period and a return to more normal Market Story The European spot rate index declined after the holidays, reflecting the typical Q1 post-peak demandpattern.At the start of the year,European consumers remained cautious,as cost pressuresdampened household spending across the EU. The Eurozone savings rate fell to 14.4% in Q4 2025, thelowest level since Q3 2023, confirming a downward trend. However, income growth (0.8% QoQ) is European Road Freight Rate Benchmark Index01. March Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices data confirmed that, for the time being, thenew inflation wave stemming from the war in the Middle East remains an energy price shock. Energyprices swung from −3.1% YoY in February to +4.9% in March, while core inflation edged down to 2.3%from 2.4%, services inflation to 3.2% from 3.4%, and non-energy industrial goods inflation to 0.5% Contractrates have risen steadily over the past three quarters.The Eurozone manufacturingPurchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 51.6 in March, indicating expansion and the strongestreading since June 2022, with output at a seven-month high and new orders stabilising. Industrial Outlook Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose through Q1 2026 (49.5 to 51.6), crossing into expansion in Februaryand posting its strongest reading since June 2022 in March. New orders expanded at their fastest ratein 46 months and output reached a seven-month high, which remains a supportive demand backdropfor road freight. However, the March release also flagged input cost inflation at its highest level sinceOctober 2022, with factory gate prices rising at the fastest pace in more than three years, and Cost spikes of this size typically lead to a pullback in orders within one to two quarters, making Q22026 the likely inflection point. The ECB is already reflecting this uncertainty, having revised its 2026GDP growth forecast down to 0.9% from 1.2% in December, citing the Iran war’s drag on real incomesand confidence. Most rate increases in the coming months are more likely to be cost-driven than Fuel is expected to be the dominant driver of road freight rate changes in Q2 and beyond. EU averagediesel prices have risen sharply, up by 31% just within the month of March, and even if demandsoftens, operators will be unable to absorb costs of this magnitude without passing them through to Ti x Upply x IRU European Road Freight Benchmark Map – Q1 2026 Ti x Upply x IRU European Road Freight Benchmark Map – Q1 2026 ROAD FREIGHT VOLUME Market Story Road trade volumes between major EU economies fell in Q1 compared with Q4. Goods exchanged byroad decreased by 8% YoY. Retail trade volume and industrial production were stable over the sameperiod, while extra-EU trade fell by 10% and construction output by 3%. However, there is a seasonaleffect. Q1 is generally the lowest quarter of the year when measured in tonnes. Road freight volumes, Source: EUROSTAT (DS-059318) Source: EUROSTAT (DS-059318) Outlook Even though 2025 was a year of growth, 2026 is marked by uncertainty. Energy prices and inflation aretwo key drivers of performance for the road transport industry, and both are pointing towardsreduced freight volumes. According to IRU forecast based on February data, total European roadfreight volume, measured in tonne-kilometres, will grow by 1.3% YoY in 2026. But this will largelydepend on the duration of the war in Iran, fuel availability and prices, and inflationary pressures and Recent deals with Australia, India and Mercosur could bring hope for operators, as imports andexports are expected to increase in the coming months. However, the challenge of US tariffs remains.At the end of February 2026, US import tariffs were raised from 10% to 15%. This rate is set to expireafter 150 days, on 24 July, unless the US Congress extends it. These higher tariffs will likely put SUPPLY SIDE ISSUES ROAD TRANSPORT COSTS 1. Fuel Prices Brent started Q1 2026 at USD 60 a barrel but rose sharply in recent weeks, closing at USD 118 a barrelon the last d