投资以提升供应链能力

Investing toenhance supply chaincapabilities Target PriceUS$154.80(Previous TPUS$161.70)Up/Downside78.7%Current PriceUS$86.61 PDD Holdings (PDD) reported(27 May)1Q26 results: revenue grew 11.0% YoY(4Q25: 12.0%) to RMB106.2bn, 2% below Bloomberg consensus on a 5% missin online marketing services and others, partly offset by a 1% beat in transactionservicesrevenue. Operating profit (OP) rose 21.6% YoY to RMB19.6bn, comingin 7% below consensus on the revenue miss and higher-than-expected salesand marketing spend. PDD continues to invest in supply chain capabilities aswell as its platform and broader ecosystem,to enhance overall experience forboth merchants and customers in order to better cope with fierce industrycompetition,especially when consumer demand is facing some short-termheadwinds.We lower our 2026E revenue / non-GAAP net profit forecasts by3%/13% to reflect stepped-up merchant support and revised assumptions on China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk 1Q26revenue missed on incremental merchant support.Onlinemarketing services and other revenue rose 2.5% YoY to RMB49.9bn (1Q25:+14.8%YoY;4Q25:+5.3%YoY),5.0%below consensus,which weattribute to incremental merchant support amid intensifying competition.Transaction services revenue grew 19.9% YoY to RMB56.3bn (1Q25:+5.8% YoY; 4Q25: +19.2% YoY), 1.4% ahead of consensus, driven in our Shuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hkStock Data GPM improved sequentially; OP came in below consensus.Gross profitmargin (GPM) was 55.9% in 1Q26 (1Q25: 57.2%), up 0.4ppts QoQ and0.3pptsabove consensus.Sales and marketing expenses reachedRMB33.8bn, up 1%YoY (1Q25: +43% YoY; 4Q25: +10%YoY),andaccountingfor 31.8%of total revenue (1Q25: 34.9%),1.3ppts aboveconsensus. OP of RMB19.6bn was 7% below consensus on softer revenue SOTP-based TP of US$154.8.Our TP comprises, per ADS:1)US$89.8 forthe main app on an unchanged 10x 2026E target PE (previously US$95.0);2)US$2.0 for Duoduo Grocery on 1.0x 2026E PS (unchanged);3)US$25.0for Temu on 1.0x 2026E PS (unchanged); and4)US$38.0 for net cash(previously US$39.6). Source: FactSet Risks 1) Slower-than-expected global business expansion; 2) geopolitical issues impactingbusiness development; and3) slower-than-expected margin expansion. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the viewsexpressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by TheHong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates,shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, offi