能源 - 中国 周报：中国煤炭安全监管预计将进一步收紧

25 May 2026 State media Xinhua reported that at least 82 people were killed in a gas explosion at acoal mine in Qinyuan County, Changzhi City (Shanxi) on 22 May. According to Mysteel(23 May), all 25 coal mines inQinyuan—representing total capacity of 25.6mntpa—havesuspended production. Local authorities indicated that comprehensive grid-styleinspections will be conducted across the coal sector. Over the weekend, Mysteelestimated that the number of suspended coking coal mines in Shanxi increased to 73,with combined capacity of 78.9mntpa. While the timeline for resumption in Qinyuanremains uncertain, most other suspended mines are expected to complete self-inspections within 3–5 days before restarting operations. During the week ended 22 May EquityChina Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4001 Yiming Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5037 Peter Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7185 Edward Leung, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3282 Oil& Gas: prices down with renewed hopes on agreement Oil:Brent oil decreased by 5.2% WoW to US$103.5/b and WTI oil prices decreased by8.4% WoW to US$96.6/b, during the week-ended 22 May 2026. The WTI discount toBrent expanded from US$3.8/b to US$6.9/b. Dirty VLCC (from Arab Gulf to China)dayrate was USD93k/day.Gas:The US Henry Hub natural gas price was down 1.8%WoW to US$2.91/mmbtu; the Netherlands TTF natural gas price was down 4.2% WoW toUS$16.41/mmbtu, 34.7% higher YoY and the JKM swap was up 10.0% WoW to US$18.8/ Miriam Chan, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7478miriam.chan@bofa.com Yibing Xia>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 8045 Energy storage:In the week-ended 22 May, prices of 50/100/280/314Ah battery cellprices rose RMB0.001/0.001/0.002/0.001Wh WoW to RMB0.426/0.413/0.336/0.358Wh.The prices of 215KW string PCS, 2500KW/1725KW centralized PCS were flattish WoW See the Appendix for a list ofabbreviations used in the report Refining runrate remained low; chemical cost slide Refining:China’s refining margin (one-month crude price lag) in May’26 was US$11.3/bverse US$31.5/b in Apr’26, per our calculation. The run-rate of independent refineries inShandong in the week ended 22 May 2026 has down 1.1ppt. WoW to 52.5%. SOE Petrochemicals:North Asia naphtha prices decreased by 10.5% WoW to US$915/t inthe week ended 22 May, tracking the decrease in crude oil. Over the same period,ethylene prices slipped 6.8% WoW to USD1,101/t, while propylene prices down 1.2%WoW to USD1,231/t. Downstream, LLDPE decreased 0.9% WoW to USD1,133/t, while >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of Weekly updates Coal The QHD 5,500kcal price was flat WoW at RMB834/t during the week-ended 15May; •The NEWC 6,000K price was +0.3% WoW to US$132.05/t, at a 23.5% premium tothe QHD price; The Liulin No.4 HCC price was RMB1,620/t, down 1.2% WoW, during the week- As of 20 May, the water inflow at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 20,000cm/s,102% higher than the 2005-25 average of 10,881cm/s. Exhibit2:ASPatQinhuangdaoport(Kcal5,500)As of22 May, ASP of QHD 5,500kcal was flat WoW at RMB834/t Exhibit1:ASPatcoalminepitsThermal coal prices at mine in Shanxi (Kcal5.5k)/Inner Mongolia(Kcal5.5k)/Shaanxi (Kcal5.8k) changed -0.4%/+0.3%/+0.9% WoW toRMB692/574/652/t as of 22 May 2026 Exhibit4:Liulin No. 4 hard coking coal price (incl. VAT)Liulin No. 4 hard coking coal price was RMB1,620/t, down 1.2% WoW, during Exhibit3:NEWC 6,000K thermal coalNEWC 6,000K thermal coal was +0.3% WoW to US$132.05/t as of 22 May 2026 the week-ended 22 May 2026 Exhibit5: Ports inventory (Northern and Southern)Ports inventory (Northern +Southern) was +1.9% WoW to 23.83mnt as of 21 May 2026 Inventory at the six major IPPs increased by 0.7% WoW to 12.9mnt, as of 22May 2026; daily-burn down 2.1% WoW to 739.7kt Source:Sxcoal, BofA Global Research Source:Sxcoal, BofA Global Research Oil Brent oil decreased by 5.2% WoW to US$103.5/b and WTI oil prices decreased by 8.4%WoW to US$96.6/b, during the week-ended 22 May 2026. The WTI discount to Brentexpanded from US$3.8/b to US$6.9/b in the week ended 15 May. Factors supporting oil prices include the following: •Bloomberg reported Iran has refused to make concessions on its uranium stockpileand the issue of tolls for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving US–Iran Bloomberg reported Iran is in discussions with Oman regarding the establishment ofa permanent tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz; •The US total oil inventory (one