舒适的衰落：加拿大如何选择稳定而非动态繁荣

ROBERT D. ATKINSON|MAY 2026 Canadian innovation, productivity, and competitiveness are weak. Absent serious policy change,they will likely get even weaker. A turnaround requires addressing Canada’s core challenges— KEY TAKEAWAYS Canada has seen weak productivity and innovation and deindustrialization. Limitedcapital investment, R&D, and entrepreneurship contribute to the problem. Many of the purported theories of poor performance, such as monopoly, housing capital Restrictive regulation, interprovincial trade barriers, too many small and medium-sizedenterprises, shallow capital markets, foreign ownership restrictions, and high immigrationrates are more relevant. But the real question is, why has more and better action not occurred on core problems? Faulty or shallow analysis and a limited political economy coalition for change contribute. Canada’s largely EU-style social democratic system and politics lead to a deep skepticismof technology-driven, dynamic capitalism and largely favour redistribution. Finally, the Canadian national state is weak and prioritizes stability over change. It is not too late for needed change in Canada, but that will require bold thinking, CONTENTS Key Takeaways ................................................................................................................. 1Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 4Poor Performance ............................................................................................................. 5Productivity .................................................................................................................. 5Per Capita Income ......................................................................................................... 5International Competitiveness ......................................................................................... 7Innovation .................................................................................................................... 8Causes ............................................................................................................................ 8Low Business Investment in Machinery, Equipment, and ICT.............................................. 8Low Business R&D Spending .......................................................................................... 9Few High-Growth Start-Ups............................................................................................. 9Why? Canadian Challenges............................................................................................... 10Dubious Causes........................................................................................................... 10Oligopoly................................................................................................................. 10Foreign Investment................................................................................................... 11Housing and Real Estate Crowding Out ....................................................................... 12Valid Causes ............................................................................................................... 12Small Domestic Market Made Smaller by Interprovincial Trade Barriers .......................... 12Regulatory and Permitting ......................................................................................... 13Too Many Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises........................................................... 13 Banking and Real Estate ........................................................................................... 18Unions .................................................................................................................... 18Universities ............................................................................................................. 18A Centre-Left Political Ecosystem Built Around Redistribution and Social Services .......... 18Conservatives Favor National Resources and Are Skeptical of a National IndustrialStrategy .................................................................................................................. 19Core Factors: Institutional................................................................................................ 19A Weak State .............................................................................................................. 19A Cautious State.......................................................................................................... 20 INTRODUCTION Canada’s economic performance over the last two decades has been disappointing, to say theleast. Much of its manufacturing, particularly motor vehicles, has been lost. Productivity growth,and hence per capita income growth, has stagnated, leading to an even greater gap with the It’s not as if these p