F1Q的喘息之机

Buy WorkdayReuters 22 May 2026 United States WDAYUS WDAY.OQ Software An F1Q Sigh of Relief ResearchAnalyst margins, and subscription backlog at the high end of guidance. Against very lowexpectations, we see this as likely enough to provide some relief in the stockespecially considering the full year raise on operating margins (vs. fears for areduction)andvaluation whichwe continuetoviewas compelling.Strength in theCEO Aneel Bhusri's strategy and focus for the company in his second tour asCEO.We believe the shift to a more startup mindset and focus on largest bets (vsprior over investment in incrementalfunctionality),positions thecompanywell tohave an opportunity to'cross the chasm'. More near-term we look to see this resultin stability or even acceleration in overall subscription revenue growth given theinternal optimism for new AcV bookings acceleration this fiscal year. We expectinvestorswill still waittosee itplay outfromarevenueand backlogsperspectivebefore fully crediting Workday and we highlight that growth, despite a strongF1Q, continues to modestly decelerate on an organic basis which makes it difficultto refute the bear thesis. +1-212-250-8563 Research Analyst+1-212-250-6775 Research Associate+1-212-250-9075 ResearchAssociate+1-212-250-1575 WithGenerativeAl impact still indebate,we seeF1Qresults and Workday's Sanaevent in NY earlier today shedding light on the company's right to win. With anall-but-certain agentic future, we were impressed by the demonstrated ability toproductize agents for employees and finance organizations in a way that expandsTAMbut alsocreatesnewcompetitors suchas withtheannounced ITSM andTravel agents. Sana founder and newly appointed Workday Chief Al Officer JoelHellermarksaidhehopestobecometheHermes ofenterprise software.Wewereimpressed bythe artful designand premiumexperience of today's event in NewYork,almost Apple-like, which we seeas a metaphorfor Workday'spotentialhere.Therearenaturallya numberofunanswered questions onhowthis all plays outno different than most of the Software industry today,but F1Q included someearly signs of success such as agentic ARR >200% yly, >4,000 customers usingat least one organically developed agent, and expansion deals that included Alaveraged 50%+ larger. By the numbers,F1Q revenue growth was well ahead of expectations andourestimatedorganicsubscriptiongrowthmodestlydeceleratedfromF4Qlevels12-month Subscription backlog+15.5% y/y (+14% organic DBe)was at the highend of guidanceandnon-GAAPoperating margins werewell aheaddrivenbytop-line outperformance and favorable spend.F2Q guidance was slightly ahead ofStreet on Subscription revenues and slightly below on 12-month Subscription not unsurprising for a 1Q even with the strong performance in the quarter,thoughfull-year NGOM guidance was raised~50bps which is impressive as the companycontinuesto investtocapture itsAl opportunity.Putting it all together, F1Q was solid and we believe refocusing the company (along with leveraging Sana as much as possible) should set up well for futuresuccess.We expectthe company,likeothersin Software,will leveragegenerativeAl as much as possible to help drive innovation with more limited headcountgrowth which should lead to higher operating margins over time. While we aresee more meaningful revisions to FY27 estimates, we believe shares remaincompelling at 8x(DBeCY27E)uFCFand 15xuFCFadj for SBC.We maintain ourBuy-rating and DCF-driven $180 target price. (+)F1Q Subscription revenue was nicely ahead of guidance and the $19mn magnitude of upside was ahead of recent beats.We estimate 1Q subscriptionrevenue embedded ~180pts of inorganic contribution, with organic yly growth of12.5%vs 13.0% inF4Q (alsoadjusting one-time DIAbenefit).We note 1Qalsoincluded the next phase of the DlA deal, with additional revenue expected to berecognized overthe year. (+) F1Q 12-month Subscription backlog growth of 15.5% yly was at the high-endof the company's guidance for 14.5-15.5% yly growth and above consensusexpectations of 15.2%. We estimate organic growth decelerated to 14.0% vs14.3% in F4Q. (+) Non-GAAP operating margin of 31.8%waswell ahead of 30.5%guidanceand30.6% consensus, with outperformance driven by the top-line and favorablespend vs expectations. Subscription gross margins declined 60bps yly (vs ourexpectations for ~4Obps contraction,while underlying OpEx grew 9.2%accelerating from the 6.0% yly in F4Q though below ~11% yly growth we estimatewas embeddedinguidance. (+)0CF of $696mn vs Street at $550mn. Current subscription billings grew 18.9%vs 14.3% in F4Q, and 17.3% on TTM basis vs F4Q TTM y/y growth of 15.4%. (+)Partnerecosystemcommentaryremainspositive,with roughly30%ofNNACVsourcedfrompartnersupfrom~25%lastQand>20%inthepriorthreequarters. (+)Internationalrevenuesgrew16%yly,comparedto13%y/ylastquarter. (=)Gross retention remainssteadyat97%consistentwith lastquarter.Customerexpansioncontributed~60%ofsubscriptionrevenuegrowth in1Q. (+)Best1Q of newA