2026加拿大基建项目前期规划到交付落地全流程风险管理评估报告

CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY3INTRODUCTION5PART I – INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTAND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT5PART II - KEYINFRASTRUCTURE PRIORITIES FOR THE ECONOMYOFTHE FUTURE71. Decarbonized Energy Systems and Grid Modernization72. High Speed Digital Connectivity93. Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Computing94. Low Cost, Low Carbon, Resilient Transport and Logistics Infrastructure105. EV Charging Networks and Low Emission Mobility106. Social and Inclusive Infrastructure127. Circulatory and Resource Efficiency128. Climate-resilient and Sustainable Systems13PART III – KEYRISKS IN INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING AND DELIVERY141. Strategic and Planning Risks142. Financial and Economic Risks173. Technical and Engineering Risks234. Delivery and Execution Risks265. Environmental and Social Risks296. Governance and Institutional Risks327. Operational and Lifecycle Risks348. Legal and Contractual Risks36PART IV – ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTAND DELIVERY37Public Private Partnerships (PPPs)37Risks of Utilizing PPPs38Infrastructure Banks42PART V – CONCLUSION44 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For Ontario to keep pace with a fast-changing economy, and to remain globally competitive, it faces anarrow window to modernize critical infrastructure for a decarbonized, digital, and resilient economy.The next decade offers an opportunity to act decisively. Failure to do so will result in higher long-termcosts, suppressed growth, and diminished public trust in government decision-making. While it is important to act quickly, it is equally important to do so through disciplined planningand proper risk management to fully unlock productivity, attract capital, and deliver durablebenefits for households and businesses. Otherwise, resources (both human and financial capital)will be tied up in long-term projects, which may then not yield the benefits that were expected.The successful delivery of the infrastructure needed to make Ontario (and by extension Canada)ready for the economy of the future will depend on disciplined risk management across thefollowing eight domains: •Strategic & Planning Risks– unclear objectives, poor demand forecasting, scope creep, andpolicy shifts•Financial & Economic Risks– cost overruns, funding gaps, revenue shortfalls, andmacroeconomic volatility•Technical & Engineering Risks– design flaws, technology failures, integration challenges, andconstruction complexity•Delivery & Execution Risks– delays, procurement failures, resource shortages, and health/safety incidents•Environmental & Social Risks– climate impacts, regulatory hurdles, community opposition,and Indigenous rights•Governance & Institutional Risks– weak oversight, corruption, capability gaps, andpolitical interference•Operational & Lifecycle Risks– underfunded maintenance, technology obsolescence,resilience gaps, and revenue collection failures•Legal & Contractual Risks– disputes, breakdowns in Public-Private Partnerships (PPP), andforce majeure events. In the context of risk management in infrastructure planning and delivery, negative events in any ofthese domains could impact the achievement of project objectives. Therefore, it is imperative thatthese events be anticipated well in advance to mitigate against the negative consequences. In recognition of the urgency for greater infrastructure investments, the latest federal and Ontarioprovincial budgets have committed significant resources to prioritizing energy system modernization,universal digital connectivity, climate-smart transport and logistics, EV charging and low-emission mobility, social and inclusive infrastructure, circular resource use, and climate resilience.i,iiGiven thelong-term nature of infrastructure investment projects, it is of utmost importance to get things rightby anticipating and rectifying early in the process the potential negative events in any of the eightdomains mentioned above. The opportunity cost of capital that is being tied up in these projects isfar too great to leave anything to chance. In this paper we will examine in detail each of these riskdomains in the context of Ontario’s (and Canada’s) long-term infrastructure planning, procurement,and delivery. Note, while we recognize that infrastructure development is a decades long endeavour from planningto completion, this paper does not imagine a future world where the infrastructure that is beingplanned today becomes obsolete tomorrow. We acknowledge that this is a very real possibility buta risk that will have already been built into the planning and development framework. Instead, thepurpose of this paper is to look at the more immediate risks of infrastructure planning and deliveryassociated with the current state of the world, as the Ontario government undertakes its long-terminfrastructure planning process. The aim is to highlight these risks and to provide policymakersinsights to avoid the myriad mistakes that have characterised long-term infrastructure investmentsin many jurisdictions across the world.