为何更多央行将准备加息

Global Why more central banksaresetto raiserates and the impact on global inflation and growth will endure +So we nowforecast that more central banks will raisepolicyrates,even in theevent ofanear-term peace deal +ThenextinG1OsettohikeinJune/JulyareECB,BoE,BoJand some EM; even a Fed rise in 2026 can't be ruled out Global Chief EconomistHSBC Bank plcjanet.henry@hsbcib.com+442079916711Bethan Ellis The Us-Iran conflict has hit confidence globally but the impact so far on activity, partlydue to industrial inventory rebuilding, has been quite modest. Some Asian economieshave seen outright shortages, but in wealthier economieswithhigh reserves therearefewsignsof supplydisruptions.Inflationismoreevidentthough:energyhascausedajump in producer prices globally, and CPl inflation has risen by more than 1ppt in theUS/EuropeinthetwomonthssincehostilitiesstartedandmuchmorewithinASEANOuroilpriceforecastsarehigher.Upsiderisksto inflationand downsideriskstogrowth have risen sharply, and financial conditions are tightening. Global EconomistHSBC Bank plcbethan.ellis@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6714 Which supply shocks are next?The longer the disruption continues, the more likely there will be shortages of commodities and related products.Supply shortfalls could result in sharply higherprices. Vessels carrying crude oil will be the first to start flowing once the Strait re-opens. It could be months before some of the refined products arrive at thedestinations where needed.Fuel oil and diesel look like the first to suffer, followed byfertilisers(alreadyimpactingtheSouthernHemisphere)andsulphur.Callingtheprecise timeline for when the availability of a particular product-from cooking gas toplastics to helium-in a particular economy is curtailed is impossible. On page 10 weillustrate the array of products across supply chains that could ultimately be affected. Astitch in time saves nine' Some argue that by raising rates now central banks are"fighting the last war"but theyare paying the price for taking so long to win the 2022 battle. Failing to take a stitch intimemeanttheyultimatelyhad to raisealotmore.It isnowaboutcredibility.InG1o,some central banks that were already grappling with inflation pre-conflict (Australia,Norway),arehopingtheMayrateriseswerethelast.OthersliketheECBandBoEcould start hiking in June/July, but we look for a quicker reversal than market pricing.Wekeep our long-held view of a Fed on hold, but supply and demand factors meanwehavelongbeenmorehawkishthanthemarketfor2026.IftheFedhikes,FXmoves could pressure even more EM economies to tighten policy.Ourforecasts forhikes in the Philippines and now expect rate rises in India and Indonesia in H2 Disclosures&Disclaimer Thisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsinthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. No more waiting to see Even if there is a swift re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the impacton global inflation and growthwill be more enduring+ Sowe nowforecast morepolicyraterises in EMandG1O, even inthe event of a near-term peace dealECB and BoE rate rises appear imminent, but would likely bereversed in 2027, and even a Fed rate rise in 2026 can't be ruled out Nearly12 weeks after the US-lsrael attacks on Iranbegan, leading to the effectiveclosure ofthe chokepoint that is the Strait of Hormuz, the biggest disruption to global oil supply on recordourmostrecentGlobalEconomicsQuarterly,25March2026.Thatscenario,whichsawourglobal inflation forecasts rise and global growth forecasts fall -but with limited changes to ourpolicyrate views-nowlooks toooptimistic, so weare movingto some of ourweaker scenarios(seeEurozone:A"bad'baseline,12May2026). Equity markets can seemingly still see the light shining brightly at the end of the tunnel: the USS&P 50o hit a new record high, propelled by rapid earnings growth, not just a surge in techsector profits. And despite ongoing tensions between the US and Iran rising periodically, the FXmarket had, until the last week, generally embraced the idea of a near-term resolution since theUs-lran ceasefire was announced on 8 April. But now nervousness about higher oil prices,higher inflation, and lower growth is rising, and the pressures are increasingly evident in thebond market rout underway as we publish. The bond market is gettingnervous about themacropicture Actual activity has not disappointed much in many places: China's exports continued to grow rapidly in April (even if the other April activity data were notably weaker); global manufacturingPMls rose as inventory-building amplified demand and supplier deliveries lengthened; the USadded many more jobs than expected in the first two months of US-lran hostilities and had thebiggest monthly rise in business inventories in March since 2022 (though this was partly a priceeffect); and the UK had remarkably strong Q1 GDP growth, withmomentum continuing intoMarch (+0.6% q-o-q). There is little doubt, though, that the virtual