2023年全球电商平台市场年度回顾报告

I think about e-commerce at.com “What’s not going to change in the nextfive to tenyears?” “I can’t imagine that ten years from now [ourcustomers] are going to say, ‘I love Amazon, but ifonly they could deliver my products a little moreslowly.’” Amazon of the 90s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s looks identical. E-commerce is a search bar Amazon is spending more onfulfillment warehouses CapEx than onthe future of commerce R&D. Amazon sits at thetop of the S-shaped curve ofinnovation. Every year, a newflock ofcompanies set outto “kill Amazon.”Yet nothing in thismarket was or isan “Amazon killer.” E-commerce Growth E-commerce spending in the U.S. grew theslowest since the 2009 recession. Amazon is 4% of U.S. retail, 40% of e-commerce, and 80% of marketplaces. If the conversation is about retail, Amazon couldalmost be an afterthought. But for e-commercebusinesses that sell through marketplaces,Amazon is everpresent and unavoidable. Shopify stores continue to grow faster than theoverall market. Shopify is closer to QuickBooks than Amazon- it powers e-commerce stores and doesn’tcreate demand. But, Shopify results indicate that consumersare comfortable buying directly from brands. Fulfillment Logistics Amazon will deliver 5.9 billion packages in the U.S.in 2023, becoming bigger than FedEx and UPS. “Amazon is testing delivering packages usingdrones” Drones are cool. But Amazon now deliversbillions of packages yearly using good-olddelivery trucks. Fulfillment and logistics are the foundation ofAmazon because Amazon doesn’t sell goods.It sells goods that ship in one to two daysand, for some shoppers, same-day. But Amazon can’t make everyone shop onAmazon. So, it sells retail infrastructure evenwhen shopping happens elsewhere. “50% of the itemsthat we sell onlineright now arefulfilled out of oneof our stores.” Smartphones and Social Commerce iPhone launched in 2007. TikTok launched in 2017. Pre-smartphone e-commerce was asales channel;now, digital drives all retail. Mobile-influencedis the biggest new factorBoth inspiration and purchasing now happen without a big screen in front of us. The currency in the post-smartphone age isattention. Social media networks like Facebook,Instagram, and TikTok hold most of it. TikTok Shop is the closest U.S. shoppers had tosocial commerce at scale But while its social commerce take failed,Amazon found a different wedge. It partneredwith Snapchat, Facebook, and Instagram. TikTok saidno. Instead of partnering withAmazon, it birthed TikTok Shop. Made, Sold, and Marketed by China First:For decades, factories in China made goodsthatfilled the shelves of U.S. retailers and brands. Second:Nearly half of the top third-party sellerson Amazon are based in China. Third:The most noticeable and impactful disruptorsare Shein and Temu shopping apps, both fromChina but only serving shoppers in the West. Theyrepresent the third iteration of Chinese commerce. “Online commerce and gaming [advertisingbusinesses] benefited from strong spend amongadvertisers in China reaching customers in othermarkets.” “I think those two players [Shein and Temu] arealmost single-handedly having an impact on thecost of advertising, particularly in some paidchannels in Google and in Meta.” “A record of more than one billion packages enteredthe U.S. in thefiscal year ended Sept. 30 under thede minimis exemption - twice the 2019 level.” Shein, Temu, and AliExpress combined now getover 1 billion monthly web visits. Traffic and hype are not revenue, let alone profit,but they indicate ambition. Amazon Sellers Sellers are in a market where Amazon is 80% of it. Amazon is its millions of sellers as it continues tomove away from 1P sales to 3P sellers. Amazon is pocketing more than 50% of sellers’revenue, up from 40%five years ago. According to sellers, atypical Amazon sellerpays a 15% transactionfee, 20-35% in Fulfillmentby Amazon fees, and upto 15% for advertising andpromotions on Amazon. Amazon describes FBA and advertising asoptional services, and by strict definition, they are.However, they are not optional if sellers want tostay competitive and thus succeed. Amazon fees pay for a lot of value; whether theyare too costly or have risen too fast is subjective. Retail Media Networks (Advertising) Amazon and other retail media networksrepresent the third wave of digital advertising. Amazon’s advertising business has exceeded a$40 billion annual run rate. Amazon is ads What are thenewideas We continue to reiterate the ideas from adecade or decades ago. In mature markets, it's hard to (profitably)offer better prices, more selection, and fasterdelivery than established players like Amazon. Future trends 1.Even if social media is not shoppable, it drives all shopping decisions2.Discovery to solve how youfind products you don't know about3.Two ad platforms (Facebook/Google) exploded into dozens of adnetworks as all platforms are now ad networks4.All B2B commerce is going digital5.AI runs the