中国数字经济发展对增值税的影响测算、挑战与对策分析

摘要 国家高度重视数字经济发展，但数字经济的发展正在深刻重塑传统产业内在结构，导致现有的基于传统制造业设计的增值税体系与数字经济的适配性下降，进一步加剧财政收支矛盾。本报告的主要研究结论如下： 数字经济的发展现状：1）根据北大汇丰智库的测算，2025年，数字经济增加值为34.4万亿元，占GDP的24.5%，同比增长9.1%。2）分类型看，2025年，数字产业化（信息通信技术产业ICT）增加值为15.9万亿元，产业数字化（数实融合）增加值为18.5万亿元。数字产业化主要由ICT服务业推动，多数行业的产业数字化的替代效应（数字技术投入对其他生产要素的挤出）大于协同效应（数字技术带来全要素生产率的提升）。 数字经济发展对增值税的影响测算：1）数字经济对增值税的影响通过增值税的实际税率（考虑抵扣）和税基相互作用传导。2）根据北大汇丰智库的测算，2018年至2025年间，数字经济增加值每增长1%，只拉动增值税增长0.2%，主要是存在少征和税源流失。3）数字产业化对增值税有正向作用，但产业数字化对增值税的破坏作用大于创造作用，主要是多数ToB（面向企业）的行业以破坏作用为主。 数字经济对现有税制的挑战：1）数据要素的采集、加工、流转等部分环节未被征税。2）支持数字经济发展的政策补贴成本不断提升。3）传统产业可征税环节减少，以及数字技术对劳动力的替代通过影响总需求限制税收增长空间。4）通过降低房地产与优质公共服务和信用的绑定，减少房地产相关的财政收入贡献。 政策建议：1）“十五五”期间推动数字增值税的开征，可以分两步走实施。2）以人工智能治理为契机，要求平台企业将数据采集、算法运营、数据产品销售业务拆分为独立子公司。3）对标实物商品，明确数字增值税计税和抵扣规则。4）深入推进数交所的发展，明确数据要素的公允价值。5）以完善税收返还、民生保障等措施，尽可能降低数实融合对传统产业的冲击。 The Impact of China’s Digital EconomyDevelopment on Value-Added Tax:Measurement,Challenges andCountermeasures Abstract:The Chinese governmentattaches great importance to the development of thedigital economy. However, the development of the digital economy is profoundlyreshaping the internal structure of traditional industries, leading to a decline in theadaptability of the existing value-added tax(VAT)system designed for traditionalmanufacturing to the digital economy, and further exacerbating the contradiction betweenfiscal revenue and expenditure. The main conclusions are as follows: Current statusofChinesedigitaleconomy:1)According to theestimates byPHBSThink Tank, in 2025, the added value of the digital economy reached 34.4 trillion yuan,accounting for 24.5% of GDP, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.1%.2)From astructural perspective, in 2025, the added value ofdigital industrialization(informationand communications technology industry,ICT)amounted to 15.9 trillion yuan, and theadded value of industrial digitization(integration of digital technology and the realeconomy)reached 18.5 trillion yuan. Digitalindustrialization is mainly driven by the ICTservice industry; for most sectors, the substitution effect(the crowding-out of otherproduction factors by digital technology input)of industrial digitization is greater than itssynergyeffect(the improvement of total factor productivity driven by digitaltechnologies). Measurement of the impact of the digital economy on VAT:1)The impact of the digitaleconomy onVATis transmitted through the interaction between the effective tax rate ofVAT(takingdeductions into account) and the tax base.2)According to theestimates byPHBSThink Tank,between 2018 and 2025, a 1% increase in the added value of the digitaleconomy only drove a 0.2% growth inVAT. This is mainly due to under-taxation and taxbase erosion within the system.3)Digital industrialization has a positive effect on VAT,whereas industrial digitalization exerts a more disruptive than creative impact on VAT.This is mainly because most To B (tobusiness) industries are dominated by the disruptiveeffect. Challenges posed by the digital economy to the existing tax system:1)Taxation is notimposed on certain links in the collection, processing and circulation of data factor.2)The costs of policy subsidies supporting the development of thedigital economy are rising.3)The taxablesegmentsof traditional industries are shrinking, and the substitution oflabor by digital technologiesislimitingthe room for tax growth by exerting anegativeimpact on aggregate demand.4) The development ofthe digital economyisdecouplingreal estate from high-quality public services and credit,which leads to the reduction ofthe fiscal contribution attributable to the real estate sector. Policy recommendations:1)Topromote the introduction of a digitalVATduring the15th Five-Year Plan period,which canbe implemented in two phases.2)Taking thegovernance of artificial intelligence as an opportunity, platform enterprises shall berequired to separate their data collection, algorithm operation and dataproduct salesbusinesses into independent subsidiaries.3)Align with physical commodities,toclarifythe taxation and deduction rules for the digitalVAT.4)Further advance the developmentof data exchangeplatformsand define the fair value of data factor.5)Improve policiessuch as tax rebates and people’s livelihood security to minimize the impact ofindustrialdigitizationon traditional sectors. 专题报告系列 近年来，政府高度重视数字经济发展，但现有研究多集中在数字经济的规模测算、数字经济对经济结构的影响以及完善相关监管措施，鲜少有研究量化分析数字经济的发展对现有税制的影响。本报告在分析中国数字经济的发展现状的基础上，厘清数字经济对增值税的传导机制，量化测算数字经济发展对增值税的影响，研判数字经济的发展趋势，明确数字经济对现有税制的挑战，并提出政策建议。 一、中国数字经济的发展现状 根据2016年G20杭州峰会发布的《二十国集团数字经济发展与合作倡议》，数字经济是指以使用数字化的知识和信息作为关键生产要素、以现代信息网络作为重要载体、以信息通信技术的有效使用作为效率提升和经济结构优化的重要推动力的一系列经济活动。中国高度重视数字经济的发展，党的十九大报告提出“建设数字中国”，“十四五”和“十五五”规划都将数字经济单独成篇，随着人工智能（AI）的发展，数字经济将迎来新一轮爆发期。 1.总量：数字经济增加值突破34万亿元，年均增速为13.9% 从规模来看，中国数字经济已经成为中国经济的重要组成部分。根据北大汇丰智库测算①，如图1所示，2025年，中国数字经济增加值为34.4万亿元，占当年名义GDP的比例为24.5%。经过二十多年的发展，中国数字经济的规模不断扩大，有望成为中国经济增长的核心引擎。2025年，中国数字经济的规模是2003年的17.4倍，占GDP的比例较2003年增加10.3个百分点。 从增速来看，中国数字经济保持较高增速扩张。2004年至2025年，中国数字经济增加值的年均增速为13.9%，高于11.1%的名义GDP年均增速。但从趋势