长期高位：为持续时间定价，而非峰值

Oil & Gas 2027drives13%/11%EPSupgradesforoilmajors Senior Global Oil &Gas AnalystHSBC Bank plckim.fustier@hsbc.com+44 20 3359 2136Sadnan Ali*, CFA with2026buybackupsideatTTE,ENI,EQNRandREP Global Oil &Gas AnalystHSBC Bank plcsadnan.ali@hsbc.com+44 207 9910569Ujwal Sharma* •SHEL,REP,CVX rated Buy; Hold onBP,ENl,EQNR, GALPTTE,XOM;ReduceonOMV;raiseTPsby4%onaverage AssociateBangalore backdrop, with the key factor now the duration of Middle East conflict rather than theinitial price shock.On6May,we raised our Brentassumption toUSD95/bfor2026(from USD80/b)and USD75/b in 2027 (from USD70/b),assuming Hormuz trafficgradually restarts from mid-June, with a return to near-normal flows by end-3Q26;see Oilmarkets: Higherforlongeras Hormuz disruption drags-Raising price forecastsThere are no changes in today's report to our gas price and refining margin assumptions.The earnings impact is dominated by oil price leverage, offsetby Middle East volume not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations. exposure.We raise EPsby13%on average for2026e and11%for2027e,with thelargestuplifts skewedtohigheroil exposure andlowertax rates (CVX,XOM).Weexpectincrementalcashflowfromhigherpricestobeallocatedtobalancesheets in most cases, though we see share buyback upside at four European majors this year,and Shellin 2027.Trading has re-emerged as a differentiator for European majors: weestimate a >USD4bn q-o-q uplift after tax across Shell, BP, Total, and Equinor, largelyfrom liquids trading rather than gas/LNG, while mark-to-market"timing effects" havedistorted reported results for Exxon and Chevron and should unwind over time. We adjust target prices across the sector and refine our valuation approach, shitingthe blend to one-third on 2026e and two-thirds 2027e for EV/DACF and distributionyield. We see c6% average implied upside to our revised target prices. In notespublished separately today, we upgrade both SHEL (see Shell: Improved visibilitybuybackupside,18May)andREP(seeRepsol:Poisedtocapturethehigh-marginenvironment, 18 May) to Buy, from Hold. We retain a Buy on CVX. We stay at Holdon BP, TTE, ENI, XOM, EQNR and GALP, and maintain a Reduce rating on OMV. HSBCFundingtheFutureSurvey Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobal InvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com (fromUSD80/b)in2026andUSD75/b(fromUSD70/b)in2027andthereafter.OurEuropeangas price assumptions were raised in late March and were already reflected in our previouscompanyestimates.Full priceassumptionsaresharedbelow. changes are less significant, at 7%. The biggest revisions to earnings are to those with more oilexposure and lowertax rates (Exxon,Chevron)andlower Middle East exposure. view, this is reflective of our above-average UsD95/b Brent assumption and a lag in consensusestimates.For2027,ourearningsandcashflowestimatesare8%/1%belowconsensus. 2026)and Repsol:Upgrade to Buy:Poised to capture the high-margin environment (18May2026)inwhichwemadethefollowingestimatechangestoourShell andRepsolforecasts,whichwerepeathereforreference. HSBC CFPSestimatechanges USD75/b (vs USD70/b)thereafter.We incorporate these price assumptions intoour latestestimatesas noted above.Ourbasecaseassumes Hormuz trafficand Gulfoutputgraduallyrestartfrommid-June,with areturnto near-normal system-levelproductionandflowsby end-3Q26. A longer disruption implies larger inventory drawdowns, a more challenging post-warrefill, and a higher residual risk premium, supporting a higher long-term price anchor. See Oilmarkets:Higherfor longeras Hormuz disruption drags-Raising price forecasts (6May2026). Refiningmargins:Weleaveourglobal refiningmarginassumptionsunchangedfromour10We believe there could be upside risk to margins if inventories take longerto refill, ortheHormuz disruption lasts longer. ourupdated Europeanand gaspriceassumptions,published on 27March-seeGas markets:LNGglut is over-Qatardamageends the LNG wave (27March2026) Our European gas price assumptions were revised higher, reflecting a fundamental tightening inglobal LNG balances following physical damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex on 19March. Drone strikes damaged two of 14 LNG trains, taking 12.8mtpa offline (c17% of Qatar'soperating capacity; c3% of global LNG supply), with repairs indicated to take 3-5 years. Webelieve the long-anticipated LNG "glut" is effectively over and now expect a deficit through 2030. Our TTFprice forecast for2026is USD16/mBtu, decreasing to USD12/mBtu in 2027andUSD9/mBtu in 2028.Risks remain skewed to the upside near term as Europe enters thestorage refll season and competition for marginal LNG cargoes intensifies, while operationalfrictions (shipping, insurance, vessel availability) could keep the market tighterfor longer evenaftertransitcondi