世界级的一体化能源化工公司，东西管道缓解全球能源冲击

世界级的一体化能源化工公司，东西管道缓解全球能源冲击 World-class integrated energy and chemical enterprise&East-west pipelines ease global energy market shocks 最新动态 ➢东西管道在26Q1产能大幅提升，达到每日700万桶的最大输送能力。公司的最大可持续产能（MSC）为1200万桶/日，该产能水平已维持了5-6年；当前实际产量受欧佩克+配额限制，平均在1000-1050万桶/日区间，冲突前的季度产量略高于1000万桶/日，冲突后因霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，产量有所受限，但公司具备灵活调整产量的能力，可根据需求快速提升产能。公司可通过东西管道将原油输往红海，该管道最大运力为700万桶/日，其中200万桶/日主要供给沙特西部的炼厂和本地设施，剩余500万桶/日可用于出口，目前公司已最大化该管道的输送效率；同时沙特西部的炼厂也在最大化产量，充分把握当前的炼油产品出口利润优势，从红海出口成品油。 ➢未来几个月全球原油库存将持续大幅下降，市场再平衡或将延续到2027年。油价由供需关系决定，冲突爆发前市场供应处于平衡状态，无法承受任何全球供应中断的影响，同时目前全球闲置产能短缺，如果霍尔木兹海峡出现运力受限的情况，供应缺口会进一步凸显，加剧供需失衡，这也是近期油价大幅上涨的原因。油价维持当前水平的时间取决于霍尔木兹海峡的相关局势持续时长：如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来1-2周内恢复通行，在当前的供应冲击下，市场也需要数月时间才能恢复平衡，且未来几个月全球库存将持续大幅下降，部分地区的情况可能更严峻；如果霍尔木兹海峡的停运情况从现在起持续4个月，市场再平衡或恢复正常的时间大概率会延续到2027年。冲突前全球已公布的原油库存就低于5年平均水平，且该状态已维持多年，库存已在过往周期中被持续消耗。 动向解读 ➢沙特阿美是全球先进的一体化石油化工公司。沙特阿美是全球先进的一体化石油化工公司，致力于提供可靠的石油化工原料，以及包括基础化学品和专用化学品在内的多元化石油化工产品，满足全球客户的持续需求。26Q1，公司实现调整后净利润336亿美元（25Q1为266亿美元）；沙特阿美26Q1的业绩充分体现了公司的强大韧性和卓越的运营灵活性。东西管道已实现每日700万桶原油的最大输送能力，事实证明其是一条至关重要的能源供应动脉，有效缓解了全球能源冲击带来的影响，并为因霍尔木兹海峡航运受限而承压的客户提供了有力支持。26Q1，公司资本支出121亿美元，为实现公司增长目标提供有力支撑。26Q1，公司基本股息为219亿美元，同比增加3.5%，将于第二季度派发。 ➢新增天然气产能将用于满足沙特国内增长的需求。目前公司生产的天然气全部供应沙特国内，无天然气或LNG出口；截至2030年，公司目标是将天然气产能提升80%以上，产能提升进度符合计划，未受到不利影响。新增产能一方面用于满足国内不断增长的需求，另一方面用于支持沙特正在推进的气转电计划，该计划目标是到2030年将公共事业部门的所有液体燃料发电替换为天然气发电，新增产能将逐步支撑该目标的落地。公司天然气业务为双位数回报率，国内需求稳定，无论国际天然气价格如何波动均可实现稳定收益。 风险提示 ➢中东地缘冲突升级的风险、基础设施集中度高的风险、国际原油价格大幅波动风险、全球原油需求走弱与能源转型加速风险。 Latest Updates ➢The capacity of the East-West Pipeline rose sharply in Q1 2026, hitting its maximum transportationcapacity of 7 million barrels per day.The company’s Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) stands at 12million barrels per day, a level maintained for five to six years. Restricted by OPEC+ production quotas, currentactual output averages 10.0-10.5 million barrels per day. Quarterly output was slightly above 10 million barrelsper day before regional conflicts, and was later constrained amid shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.Nevertheless, the company boasts flexible output adjustment capability to ramp up production rapidly inresponse to market demand. Crude oil can be delivered to the Red Sea via the East-West Pipeline with amaximum throughput of 7 million barrels per day, among which 2 million barrels per day are mainly supplied torefineries and local facilities in western Saudi Arabia, and the remaining 5 million barrels per day are availablefor export. The pipeline is now operating at full efficiency. Meanwhile, refineries in western Saudi Arabia arerunning at maximum output to seize profitable export opportunities for refinedoil products and ship finishedpetroleum products via the Red Sea route. ➢Global crude oil inventories will continue to decline substantially in the coming months, and marketrebalancing is likely to extend into 2027.Crude oil prices are fundamentally driven by supply and demanddynamics. Prior to regional conflicts, the market was already in a tight balanced state vulnerable to any supplydisruption. In addition, global spare production capacity remains scarce. Onceshipping capacity in the Strait ofHormuzis curbed,supply shortages will become more prominent and further worsen supply-demandimbalances, which is the core driver behind the recent sharp surge in oil prices. The duration of current oil pricelevels hinges on how long tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. If normal navigation resumes within 1 to 2weeks, the market will still take several months to regain equilibrium amid existing supply shocks, accompaniedby sustained sharp inventory draws across the globe with tougher conditions in some regions. If shippingsuspensions last for four months starting from now, market normalization will most probably be delayed until2027. Global official crude oil inventories were already below the five-year averagewell before the conflicts andhave remained in such a depleted state for years after prolonged consumption over previous cycles. Trend Interpretation ➢Saudi Aramco is a world-leading integrated energy and chemical enterprise.Thecompanycommitted tosupplying reliable petrochemical raw materials and diversified products including basic and specialty chemicalsto meet enduring global market demands. The company posted adjusted net profit of 33.6 billion US dollars inQ1 2026, compared with 26.6 billion US dollars in Q1 2025, fully demonstrating its strong business resilienceand outstanding operational flexibility. With the East-West Pipeline fully operational at 7 million barrels per day,it has evolved into a critical energy supply artery that effectively cushions the impact of global energy shocksand offers solid support to clients facing pressures from shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Thecompany recorded capital expenditure of 12.1 billion US dollars in Q1 2026 to underpin its long-term growthtargets. Its base dividend reached 21.9 billion US dollars in the quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of3.5%, which will be distributed in